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This year's Oscar race is a battle of the old fogeys vs. the new guard.
On the side of youth is "The Social Network," director David Fincher's 21st-century look at the birth of Facebook and a profile of its antihero founder, Mark Zuckerberg (played by Jesse Eisenberg). It's smart, with a crackling script by Aaron Sorkin, and tuned in to the plugged-in world of online communication like no movie before it.
The old guard is represented by "The King's Speech," directed by Tom Hooper, which chronicles how Britain's King George VI (Colin Firth) worked to overcome a debilitating stammer thanks to the love of his adoring wife (Helena Bonham Carter) and the help of a vocal coach (Geoffrey Rush). It's a warm, undemanding drama chock-full of inspirational sentiment.
In other words, "The King's Speech" is the sort of movie the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has clutched to its bosom since the 1950s — and seems ready to embrace all over again Sunday night, Feb. 27, when the 83rd annual Academy Awards are handed out at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre. (The show airs live on ABC, KTVX, Channel 4, at 7 p.m. Mountain time.)
"The Social Network" received end-of-year plaudits from nearly every major critics group in the nation, and Time magazine named Zuckerberg its Person of the Year.
"The King's Speech," on the other hand, was rewarded by the Golden Globes, an approving review from Queen Elizabeth II (King George's daughter), and this rave from "60 Minutes' " resident fossil Andy Rooney: "I like movies that remind me of something I know about."
Read the websites of most Oscar prognosticators, and you see how deep this battle between the ultra-hip and the artificial hip goes. It's the cynical consensus that the old farts are going to win out over the cool kids, and "The King's Speech" will take Best Picture over "The Social Network."
That's too bad, because "The Social Network" is not only a far superior movie, but also a movie that defines the age in which we live now — an age when smart people are desperate to connect with something outside themselves, if even just through a social-networking website.
But because "The Social Network" is so cool, it probably left a large contingent of Oscar voters feeling a little cold. No such worries with "The King's Speech," which wraps its sentimentality in the plummy trappings of royalty and well-spoken dialogue. Even the most trite script clichés sound better with an English accent.
So who is going to win the big awards? Here are my fearless forecasts:
Best Actor
Nominees • Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"; Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"; Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"; James Franco, "127 Hours"
Who will win • Firth has been winning all the awards leading up to the Oscars (notably the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild), and he's a lock to win Sunday, too.
Who should win • Firth's performance was strong, not just in the mechanics of stuttering but also in his regal bearing. But my vote would go to the one of these five who held your attention when he was working practically alone and unable to move: Franco, so charismatic and engaging as climber Aron Ralston in "127 Hours."
Best Actress
Nominees • Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"; Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"; Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"; Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"
Who will win • Portman's intense performance as a ballerina on the brink of madness had everything Oscar voters love — including dramatic weight loss.
Who should win • In a category of standout performances, my pick would be Williams' soul-baring portrait of a woman at both ends of a relationship — the loving start and the disintegrating finish — in "Blue Valentine."
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees • Christian Bale, "The Fighter"; John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"; Jeremy Renner, "The Town"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"; Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"
Who will win • Bale's portrayal of a crack-addicted burnout involved body-morphing (always an Oscar favorite — same as with Portman in "Black Swan") and an authentic Boston accent.
Who should win • Saying Bale's performance was a weight-loss stunt or all in his accent diminishes his complete submersion into the character.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees • Amy Adams, "The Fighter"; Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"; Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"; Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"; Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"
Who will win • Leo was the favorite, but her self-commissioned "for your consideration" ads in the Hollywood trades turned off some voters. (Remember Martin Mull's famous observation that "Hollywood is high school with money" — and the Oscars is Hollywood's way of voting for homecoming kings and queens. You didn't think this was about rewarding the art, did you?) Leo may still win, but I'm betting on a minor upset — as in a minor, the 14-year-old Steinfeld, will take home the statuette for what is really a lead-actress performance.
Who should win • Another strong category. I'd vote for Adams, who showed a new side to her talents as the sexy/tough chick who pushes Mark Wahlberg's boxer to greatness.
Best Director
Nominees • Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; Joel and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"
Who will win • Usually, Best Director and Best Picture go hand in hand. But this year there may be a split, with the smooth lines of Fincher's direction of "The Social Network" winning out over Hooper's more pedestrian work.
Who should win • Fincher made a dynamic story out of two of the least cinematic activities known to humanity: typing on keyboards and sitting in deposition hearings. That's worth an Oscar by itself.
Best Screenplay — Original
Nominees • Mike Leigh, "Another Year"; Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (screenplay), Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (story), "The Fighter"; Christopher Nolan, "Inception"; Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, "The Kids Are All Right"; David Seidler, "The King's Speech."
Who will win • "The King's Speech," for giving Firth great moments to shout without a stutter.
Who should win • "Inception" tops the category for originality, for giving us something we've never seen before — even in our dreams.
Best Screenplay — Adapted
Nominees • "127 Hours," screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy; "The Social Network," screenplay by Aaron Sorkin; "Toy Story 3," screenplay by Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich; "True Grit," written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen; "Winter's Bone," adapted for the screen by Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini.
Who will win • Sorkin delivered the smartest and the most quotable script of the year ("I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me" or "If you guys were the inventors of Facebook, you'd have invented Facebook" or many others).
Who should win • Tough call: "127 Hours" made an action movie based on inaction, while "Winter's Bone" brought the flavor of the Ozarks alive in the backdrop of a riveting thriller. But Sorkin's trademark walking-and-talking patter never sounded so sharp and so cool.
Best Picture
Nominees • "127 Hours," "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "The King's Speech," "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit," "Winter's Bone"
Who will win • "The King's Speech," in a triumph of what's safe over what's cool.
Who should win • "127 Hours" has the body disfiguring of "Black Swan," the inspirational uplift of "The King's Speech" and shares with "The Social Network" both its cool factor and its yearning message of finding connection in an increasingly isolated world.
Follow the Movie Cricket
O Tribune movie critic Sean P. Means will be commenting live during the Oscar telecast. Follow him on Twitter @moviecricket and on at blogs.sltrib.com/moviecricket starting Sunday at 7 p.m. The show airs live on ABC, KTVX Channel 4.