Trying to make sense of RSL's potential playoff picture

This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2014, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

In an ideal world, I'd already be perusing Travelocity or Expedia for decent deals on trips to potential cities for the kicking off of Real Salt Lake's 2014 postseason. I may have already have my travel booked. In Major League Soccer, parity rules and anticipation is futile. Two regular-season matches remain and no one has any sort of clue what will happen out West and which clubs will face off the last week of October and early November.

Suffice to say, MLS doesn't adhere to ideals. Even the two best teams in the league this year, Seattle Sounders and L.A. Galaxy, enter the final two weeks dead-even at 60 points a piece, but play one another in back-to-back matches to close out the 2014 regular season.

No one has a bleeping clue.

There's the transition to RSL. One thing for certain is that the club will have its say in the Western Conference postseason picture for the seventh-consecutive season, dating back to 2008. The 2-0 win over San Jose Saturday put RSL at 14-8-10 and 52 points through its first 32 games, eclipsing the 50-point mark for a fifth-straight year.

But against which team will RSL face in a few weeks in its quest to return to the MLS Cup final?

Even the worst-case scenario at this point — which would be RSL dropping to the No. 4 vs. No. 5 Wild Card game — would be featured at Rio Tinto Stadium on Oct. 29. RSL due to points and tiebreakers cannot finish worse than fourth out West, meaning a home playoff match in Sandy is guaranteed this season.

Here's a quick breakdown of the Western Conference playoff picture as currently constituted:

6. Portland: 45 points, 11-9-12

Both Seattle and L.A. have wrapped up the top two seeds out West and are front-runners for the Supporters' Shield. East leader D.C. United, at 55 points, is statistically eliminated from the Shield chase, despite facing Chicago and Montreal — the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference — in its final two matches.

Circling back to RSL, let's get this out of the way because things are going to get quite confusing. This is how the equal-points tiebreaker will go if teams are knotted at the end of the regular season.

• Tiebreakers in points go in this order: Total wins, goal differential, goals scored.

So, who could RSL face in its first postseason outing? Every team except FC Dallas. Neither RSL, nor FCD can catch L.A. or Seattle. But Vancouver could catch Dallas for the fourth spot if Dallas drops its last two and the 'Caps earn six points in their last two matches. Who knew so much math would be required for this gig?

• If RSL nails down the No. 3 seed, it will face either Seattle or L.A. in the Western Conference semifinal 2 vs. 3 matchup and likely host the first leg on Saturday, Nov. 1 at Rio Tinto Stadium. (Unless MLS gets crazy and has RSL host a Sunday playoff match for the second year in a row. Doubtful, right?). That would mean the return leg of the two-leg series would either be at L.A. on Sunday, Nov. 9 or at Seattle on Monday, Nov. 10.

• If FC Dallas nails down the No. 3 seed and leapfrogs RSL for that spot, RSL will host either Vancouver or Portland in the one-game Wild Card game on Wednesday, Oct. 29 at Rio Tinto Stadium.

While Vancouver is theoretically in striking distance of RSL — should RSL drop its last two matches and the Whitecaps win their last two — RSL would still hold the tiebreaker because Vancouver's win total would up to just 13. RSL is already at 14 wins so far. FC Dallas, not surprisingly, is RSL's biggest threat. The Hoops' last two outings of 2014 are away at Colorado and home to Portland.

Here's a layout of how each team's schedule stacks up in these last two weeks of 2014:

Portland: Home vs. RSL (Oct. 18), away at FC Dallas (Oct. 25).

This is probably much more confusing for me than it is for you well-versed MLS Cup postseason followers. It's not confusing as much as it is the culmination of eight months of a regular-season coming down to the last two games to mold essentially the entire playoff picture.

For RSL, clinching the No. 3 seed this weekend will require this: Defeating a desperate Timbers side at Providence Park and seeing FC Dallas draw or lose to the Rapids, a team that hasn't won since July 25. All we can do now is watch performances transpire and see what's left. Here's hoping the last-minute travel plans aren't too expensive.

-Chris Kamrani

Twitter: @chriskamrani