Is the rate of suicide at Hill Air Force Base higher than the general rate of self-inflicted death in Utah?

It’s a contention that we’ve made in our reporting a number of times. And some have asked where we have come up with that figure. That’s a valid question, and one I’m happy to answer.

In an e-mail on March 8, Utah Department of Health official Jenny Johnson wrote:

"We have recently published the Utah Violence and Injury Small Area Report. If you go to page 68, there is a section on suicides according to small areas in Utah. Small areas are geographic areas in the state with similar population sizes and are grouped together according to zip code. Small areas provide an excellent way of looking at data at the neighborhood/community level. Hill Air Force Base/Clearfield is considered one small area (encompasses zip codes 84015, 84106, 84056).The rate of suicides at HAFB/Clearfield was 14.6 per 100,000 population (total of 40 suicides) compared to the Utah rate of 15.3 per 100,000 population (total of 1,781 suicides) for the years 2003-2007. This was not significantly different which means essentially there is no difference between HAFB/Clearfield and Utah overall."

There’s some great information in that report — and I suggest that anyone interested in this issue give it a thorough look. However, The Tribune has opted to evaluate the numbers in a different way. And you can decide for yourself what it most appropriate. Here’s how I described it to Ms. Johnson a few month ago:

"For our purposes, the rate of suicide for Hill AFB is derived not by geography but by employment, so while the data by zipcode is interesting, I'm not sure it speaks to whether the rate among Hill workers is high or low, because it includes everyone in those zipcodes, not just those who work at Hill, and it excludes those who work at Hill but live out of those zips ...

"Two things jumped out at me in your attachment. The first is the years of the sample: 2001-2007. Of course, that doesn't include the high-mark years of 2008 and 2009. The second is the number of civilian workers you use: 14,000. I just double checked this with Hill's public affairs office, which gave me an estimate of 13,000, which isn't a big difference but is worth noting.

With those factors in mind:

• For 2008, Hill's civilian employee suicide rate works out to roughly 38 per 100,000.

• For 2009, the rate was roughly 54 per 100,000."

As Ms. Johnson noted, the Utah Department of Health has placed Utah's suicide rate at 15.3 per 100,000. (Note: Gen. Andrew Busch on Friday estimated the number of military civilians at Hill to be 12,000, which would result in an even higher suicide rate at Hill.)

It's probably also worth noting that gainful employment is supposedly a risk reducer for suicide, so it would stand to reason that Hill — where most employees not only are keeping their (well-paying) jobs, healthcare coverage and other benefits, but have little reason to stress over the sorts of mass layoffs that other blue- and white-collar workers have faced over the past few years — might actually have a decreased level of self-inflicted deaths among its employees over the general population. Hill workers also undeniably have access to a far greater number and spectrum of suicide-prevention resources than most other workers, and yet the civilian suicide numbers at Hill have risen each year since 2005 (albeit by small numbers, which may or may not be statistically significant but are personally significant to everyone touched by each death.)

But if there's any remaining debate over the numbers, there shouldn't be any question as to the fact that every suicide is a tragedy. I take Air Force leaders at their word when they say that, at "Team Hill," even one suicide is too many. (And they have said that, repeatedly.) As such, I feel it is appropriate to identify instances in which they are falling short, particularly given ample evidence that many workers feel as though the work environment at Hill one of the contributing stressors that make suicide seem like a viable option.