And while good news and even hopes of gaining new missions and jobs was anticipated for Hill, questions lingered about other Utah defense installations, particularly the Tooele Army Depot.

"I'm certainly confident that Hill won't be on the list for closure, so when you look at that, anything outside the apocalypse is a success," said Vickie McCall, president of the Utah Defense Alliance, the group working to defend Utah's bases. "Will we lose some? Maybe, but if we don't close we're doing great because we can recover."

While whispers of bases closed and jobs lost are flying and purported lists of installations to be closed are littering the Internet, observers have been impressed with how little credible information has leaked out.

"I've heard all the rumors and I don't want to get my hopes up," said Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah. "The people who know aren't talking and the people who are talking don't know."

Said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah: "We're going to have to wait and see. I just hope we can hold onto Hill. We've tried to hold onto everything in Utah. I'm not sure we can do that. But Hill is an absolute must for our state."

Indeed, Hill is the state's largest employer with nearly 24,000 people working on the base. Alone it employs 10 times as many workers as the other two main Utah installations on the block, the Dugway Proving Ground and Tooele Army Depot.

"It's huge. I don't think most people understand the significance of what is about to happen one way or another," said Lane Beattie, president of the Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce and member of the Utah Defense Alliance.

A study by the Utah Defense Alliance and the University of Utah said that Hill infuses about $1 billion into the state's economy each year. Its closure would cost the region 47,000 jobs, homes would stand vacant and almost $200 million in annual state tax revenue would be lost. It could take 15 years to recover, Beattie said.

"A lot of lip service is given to economic development by many, many different interests in the state of Utah, but there is nothing that would have the impact of keeping Hill Air Force Base," he said.

Wilf Sommerkorn, director of the Davis County community and economic development office, said Hill's closure would force the county into a major redevelopment effort, but he is confident the news will be good.

"Maybe it's foolishness, but I'm not terribly nervous," he said. "I'm thinking we probably won't be seeing a base closure. We may see some realignment and, if so, it's just as likely that we'll see some missions coming in as going out."

Tooele is in more dire straits. A major realignment in 1993 cost the Army depot, which warehouses ammunition and does some armoring of vehicles, nearly 2,000 jobs. The local economy has recovered fewer than half of those jobs, according to the Government Accountability Office.

Utah officials are hopeful that they have done what it takes to protect the Utah bases. The Utah Defense Alliance has spent several years preparing for the BRAC and Hatch said members of the delegation have been meeting "continuously" with Pentagon officials, advancing the state's case.

"We've done everything we can and I feel pretty good about it," Hatch said. "We've been right on top of it."

Former Utah Rep. Jim Hansen, a longtime advocate of Hill, is one of the nine BRAC commissioners who will review the Defense Department's recommendations. He has warned repeatedly that he would guarantee Hill a fair hearing, but would vote to close Hill if it was the right thing to do.

On Thursday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told reporters that the list of base closures likely will be much shorter than earlier expected.

He said the Pentagon has identified about 10 percent excess capacity, which is the fat BRAC is expected to trim. That is a significant reduction from a 25 percent excess capacity figure that had been used earlier.

"The department is recommending fewer major base closures than had earlier been anticipated, due in part to the return of tens of thousands of troops through our global posture review," Rumsfeld said.

Rumsfeld said the pressures to equip U.S. forces and reduce the stress imposed by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan make it essential to economize operations. If the Pentagon's recommendations are adopted, it could save the country $48.8 billion over 20 years.

In the four earlier BRAC rounds, there were 97 major closures and 55 realignments. The net savings through the 2001 budget year was about $18 billion with about $7 billion in annual savings since.

Representatives of the Utah Defense Alliance arrived in Washington on Thursday in anticipation of the release of the Pentagon list. Members of Congress are expecting to be notified of the BRAC decisions around 7:15 a.m. MDT.

The public release of the report is scheduled at least an hour later. The announcement will launch the state into Phase 2 of its BRAC effort, with contingency plans ranging from "crisis mode" if Utah bases are slated for closure, to scavenging closing bases for new programs to bring to the state.

Bishop compared it to a highway with several lanes the state could be traveling.

"One is a very nasty, bumpy lane that I don't want to be in," he said.

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Tribune reporter Matt LaPlante and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

BRAC questions & answers

* What will happen today?

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld will send the BRAC Commission a list of recommended base closures and realignments.

* What installations are being looked at?

The Defense Department says every U.S. military installation will be scrutinized.

* How many bases are expected to be closed?

Rumsfeld had said the department had 25 percent excess capacity, but he has since said that the BRAC round may not close half of that surplus.

* Is the commission likely to change the list?

In the past, the commissioners have changed fewer than 10 percent of the Pentagon recommendations, according to the GAO.

* Who are the commissioners?

The commission is made up of nine members, including former Utah U.S. Rep. Jim Hansen. It is headed by former Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony Principi. It includes a former congressman, a former Pentagon civilian official, four retired high-ranking military officers and a former Cabinet secretary.

What happens next?

* The commissioners will hold a series of public hearings across the country on the effects and benefits of the Pentagon's recommended actions.

* The commission can vote to add or remove a base from the list, but it will take seven of the nine commissioners to change the list.

* The commission will send its recommendations to President Bush by Sept. 8.

* The president will have until Sept. 23 to accept or reject the list in its entirety. If the president accepts the list, Congress will have 45 days to accept or reject the list, but they cannot change it.

* The Pentagon has six years to complete the BRAC recommendations.

Utah bases closed in the past* In the 1995 BRAC round, Ogden Defense Distribution Depot was closed, costing 1,105 civilian jobs. According to the GAO, more than twice that many jobs have moved into the community since the closure.

* In the 1993 BRAC round, 1,942 civilian jobs were lost when Tooele Army Depot was realigned. Fewer than half of those have been recovered.

* The 1988 BRAC round closed Fort Douglas near the University of Utah. There were also realignments to Hill Air Force Base in 1993 and 1995.