The cold, hard numbers say attendance is way down for Real Salt Lake games this season -- lowest in its history, in fact -- even though the team is playing its first full season in a gleaming new $110 million stadium and without the Utah Jazz competing for local attention with a deep run in the NBA playoffs.

But team officials are far from panicking.

That's because while they would prefer (and might soon receive) consistent sellouts, they believe the decline -- 16 percent, compared to the first five home games of last season in soccer-unfriendly Rice-Eccles Stadium, and nearly 20 percent compared to the inaugural season there -- is due mostly to inclement weather early in the season, and not the quality of the team or the stadium.

"Our plan is starting to work," team president Bill Manning said, "and I think we're going to see it in the attendance numbers."

That theory will be tested starting this weekend, when RSL plays its first home game in three weeks while riding a six-game winless streak that has stirred trade speculation and dropped the team into sixth place in the Major League Soccer Western Conference with one of the worst records in the league. Manning said he's expecting the highest-grossing regular-season game in team history when the rival Colorado Rapids visit on what's expected to be a pleasant evening Saturday, with a postgame performance by "American Idol" star David Archuleta of Murray.

That would follow the sellout RSL enjoyed in its last home game against Kansas City three weeks ago, and the team is expecting larger crowds as the season progresses. It's also in discussions with the league about limiting the number of early-season home games in the future, Manning said.

"We're taking weather way too much into our hands," he said.

The team's current average of 14,629 fans -- which counts all tickets sold and given away, not actual fans in the seats -- is skewed by back-to-back games in April that attracted fewer than 12,000 fans each because of cold and rainy weather, while last year's average of 17,437 was aided by an early-season meeting with the Los Angeles Galaxy that featured superstar David Beckham and drew 25,571 to Rice-Eccles. Beckham was still off playing for AC Milan in Italy when the Galaxy visited Rio Tinto for the first time this season a month ago.

Still, Manning said ticket revenue in the new stadium is actually up 28 percent -- the largest increase in league history by a team moving into a new stadium -- in part because the team gives away far fewer free tickets than it once did.

RSL typically gave away between 3,000 and 3,500 complimentary tickets to games in Rice-Eccles Stadium, he said. Now, it gives away closer to 1,000 per game -- meaning the team is actually selling almost exactly the same number of tickets it did last season, and for higher prices.

What's more, several of the upcoming home games figure to lure even more fans than usual, because of special events.

Not only will Archuleta perform after the Rapids game, but fireworks will follow the games against San Jose on July 3 and FC Dallas on July 24. Those holiday games have traditionally been big draws for the team, suggesting that the Toronto game on June 27 might be the only thing standing between RSL and six straight sellouts -- including an exhibition against Mexico's Club America on July 11 -- before the MLS All-Star Game next month, itself a major event.

"That's why I'm bullish on where we are," Manning said.

Technically, sellouts will be slightly easier to achieve during the summer, because the installation of a concert stage that occupies the south end of the stadium has cut capacity for games from 20,008 to 19,340 -- though the team is planning to offer standing-room tickets for the south end soon, which could boost that number.

Either way, the numbers haven't been nearly as bad for RSL so far as they have elsewhere in the league.

Only three nonexpansion teams have enjoyed attendance increases this season, while some have seen huge drops. Last-place San Jose and FC Dallas have had attendance plunge nearly 34 percent, while four others have seen declines between 18 and 32 percent. Overall -- not counting the hugely popular expansion team in Seattle, which did not exist last season -- attendance is down nearly 15 percent league-wide, compared to this time last year.

mcl@sltrib.com