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Gallup goes awry

Published September 24, 2004 12:48 am
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2004, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Please be aware that Gallup polls have consistently been outliers in this presidential election and have consistently given Bush higher numbers than others.

For example, according to http://pollingreport.com, August surveys of likely voters showed Kerry up by one to seven points in nine national polls and Bush up by three to four points in three national polls. Curiously, all three of the outlier Bush-favoring polls were conducted by Gallup. The other nine were conducted by nine different polling organizations using nine different polling methods. One has to conclude that Gallup's methods are seriously flawed.

Recently, The Wall Street Journal, Pew, Harris, Investor's Business Daily and Democracy Now all released polls showing the race was neck and neck again with neither candidate ahead by more than two points. On Sept. 17, Gallup released a poll claiming that Bush is up by 13 points nationally.

How can news organizations continue to cite Gallup's polls with a straight face? It seems that Gallup is no longer “the most trusted name in polling” but rather “the most consistently wrong name in polling.” Frank Gallup would be ashamed.

Carrie Ulrich

Salt Lake City

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