This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2017, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
President Trump will participate in the NATO summit in Brussels on May 25. He will meet France's new president, Emmanuel Macron, and Theresa May, the United Kingdom's prime minister, whose Conservative Party should win overwhelmingly in the parliamentary elections on June 8.
Both May and Macron should be solid and reliable friends of the United States and stalwart supporters of NATO. The trans-Atlantic relationship can be strengthened if Trump voices admiration for NATO and for European unity politically, economically, and militarily.
Unfortunately, many challenges are on the horizon. Firstly, Trump has conveyed mixed messages about NATO and the European Union (EU). He has referred to NATO as "obsolete" and claims that the EU runs counter to American interests.
Secondly, the EU is euphoric over Macron's crushing victory over Marine Le Pen, the far-right politician who is anti-EU, anti-NATO and pro-Putin. Macron is 39, never won elective office before and has a political movement, En Marche, that is in its infancy. He faces legislative elections in June that may determine his success as chief executive. He has pledged to run candidates in all 577 legislative districts, with at least half being women and half relatively new to the political scene. If his party fails to secure a majority, he could be bogged down in endless battles with the legislature.
Macron's agenda will also face stiff opposition from many in the powerful labor, agriculture and public administration sectors. Without the backing of a disciplined majority in the National Assembly, Macron will soon be frustrated. In addition, if the French populace loses faith in this center-left leadership, it may pave the way for Marine Le Pen to be the front-runner in the 2022 presidential election.
Thirdly, across the Channel, May is riding high in the saddle and expects an easy victory in the upcoming election. Nevertheless, she will soon face her share of troubles. She was once a supporter of the U.K. remaining in the EU but, after the results of the 2016 Brexit referendum, she has switched her allegiance. With bitterness being expressed by EU leaders over this unilateral declaration of independence, British voters have rallied to their prime minister's cause, explaining in part why her party will win decisively in June.
On the other hand, the cruel realities of the U.K. removing itself from the EU and jeopardizing European unity will soon surface. Most U.K. trade occurs within the EU, but it will soon forfeit this privileged status of membership. In particular, manufacturing and financial services will be among the sectors hardest hit, resulting in lower economic growth and higher unemployment. Not many decades ago, the sun never set on the British Empire, and a leader in London could quip: "Fog in Channel, Continent Cut Off." Soon it will be "Fog in Channel, Britain Cut Off."
Today, the U.K. faces a greatly reduced global and regional presence. I have calculated that if the pound closes at about 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2017, California may surpass the U.K. as the world's fifth largest "national" economy.
As Trump heads to Brussels, he must be cognizant of the weakening position of the trans-Atlantic world in economic and political terms. Increasingly, manufacturing, exports and international investment are shifting toward Asia and away from North America and Europe. Relations among the traditional allies that border the Atlantic Ocean must be strengthened and European unity and NATO cohesion encouraged, not disparaged. This will be a major test facing the Trump administration as well as the new governments in France and the UK.
Earl Fry is a professor of political science at Brigham Young University and currently the European studies research scholar at BYU's London Centre. During the winter of 2016, he was a visiting scholar at the Paris Institute of Political Studies.