Nine out of 10 Utahns would pay less. The state would become the Ireland of the Intermountain West - a chugging little engine surrounded by stagnant economies. Corporations would pack up and move to the interior. Funding for public schools would flow in a predictable stream.

It's early yet. But so far, the flat tax seems like a big flop.

Under a dual-track system cobbled together in 2006, most Utahns would pay more this year - a fact state leaders made little effort to publicize at first.

After pushing two years for a "flatter" tax that would reform Utah's system of revenue collection, even Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. seems to acknowledge most Utahns would be better off waiting a year.

"It's not fair to say they will be [affected negatively]. They could say, 'I would rather pay more taxes,' and choose the flat tax this year," said spokeswoman Lisa Roskelley. "The reason it's optional is they can choose which is best for them."

For most Utahns, that means bypassing the gilded

5 percent rate for the old

system, which allows deductions for everything from charitable donations to hobby expenses.

This isn't a good beginning for tax reform.

Lawmakers, tax commissioners and economists all urge patience; this will all work out, they say. Next year, they say, Utahns will have a smorgasbord of deductions to cut into their tax bills.

"The overall goal of the recent tax changes is to reduce income taxes for the people of Utah," Sen. Wayne Niederhauser, R-Sandy, wrote in an op-ed in The Salt Lake Tribune.

To be fair, this new tax scheme is more progressive than the model Utah has been following for decades. In addition to taxpayer and senior citizen deductions, the new tax formula eliminates the deduction for federal income taxes, cutting a benefit to the "CEO class" Huntsman and his advisers were wooing.

"It's tremendous tax reform for Utah," said state economist Juliette Tennert.

Right now, those of you feverishly filling out forms probably don't care about the heady economic theory behind the change. All that matters is the bottom line.

James David, a Salt Lake City retiree, would have to pay $600 more this year under the flat tax. And his mother, who lives on $220 a month plus Social Security, would have to pay an additional $146.

"I feel extremely ill-served by the Legislature that passed this special-interest monstrosity last year and by Gov. Huntsman, who signed it," David wrote in a Tribune letter to the editor.

The Tax Commission finally posted a primer on its Web site to walk Utahns through the dual-track system.

In the end, the implementation glitches won't matter if businesses flock to the Beehive State, schools are flooded with money for computers and Utahns send fewer of their paychecks to tax collectors.

But with taxpayers turned off, home sales stalling and La-Z-Boy sending jobs south of the border, the foundation under tax reform seems a little shaky.

walsh@sltrib.com