A Salt Lake Tribune poll of 625 Utah residents found a majority expect no voucher-related retribution. About one in five respondents said they believe the Legislature will try to penalize public education or teachers unions.
Democrats were far more skeptical than Republicans, with nearly half those identifying with the minority party saying they believe there will be payback attempts. One-third of Democrats said they did not believe that will occur.
Republicans said by a 61 percent majority they did not believe lawmakers will try to punish anti-voucher forces, with just 8 percent saying they expect such attempts.
The results surprised voucher activists, who have heard the widespread rumors of revenge.
While happy that most residents don't harbor suspicions of lawmaker retribution, Rep. Steve Urquhart, sponsor of the voucher bill, said the fear of igniting such perceptions will effectively block significant education reform this session.
"The magnifying glass on the Legislature right now on education issues is really intense. I don't know if we can do much of anything in the education arena other than grind axes," said the St. George Republican.
The Tribune poll showed a slight plurality of Utahns - 48 percent - said they would support a limited school voucher bill targeted at low-income and/or special needs students.
But Urquhart said the referendum defeat "hamstrings" lawmakers, preventing them from acting on any voucher measure this session. Also precluded, he believes, is action on merit pay for teachers - a reform enjoying popular support, according to polls.
"It's almost taboo for the Legislature to address the issue, at least for the time being," he said.
Utah Education Association Executive Director Susan Kuziak said the state's largest teachers union is going into the session feeling "optimistic" but with the byword of "constant vigilance."
"It's counterproductive to speculate that they're going to be punitive," she said of lawmakers. "If they do [take that tack], we'll know and we'll shine the light on it."
Leah Barker, spokeswoman for the pro-voucher Parents for Choice in Education, said teachers' unions are playing the retribution speculation for everything it's worth. "It's smart for them. It's a good excuse for anything they don't support - to pit the public against their legislators," Barker said.
Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. says he anticipates no action on vouchers this session and no attempt at referendum "backlash."
"I don't sense that there's a lot of politics being played after the debate. I think that was done. The people spoke out," said Huntsman. "I think it was obviously an important chapter in our public policy direction and now we turn our focus to those things that need to be done in a broader sense to improve our schools."
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* ROBERT GEHRKE and SHEENA MCFARLAND
contributed to this report.
