Fifty-six percent of likely voters polled said they would vote against the voucher program to 36 percent who said they support the state subsidies to private schools. Only 8 percent remained undecided.
Leah Barker, spokeswoman for the pro-voucher Parents for Choice in Education, acknowledged the figures were disappointing. But she said they are not conclusive in an election that will be dominated by low-interest municipal races.
"In a low-turnout election like this one, it's all going to turn on who shows up at the polls," Barker said. "Every single vote has more of an impact. It's going to come down to who is more motivated."
Lisa Johnson of the anti-voucher Utahns for Public Schools, said she was struck by how consistent the poll numbers have been on the issue. A poll last month by Brigham Young University found Utahns opposed vouchers 61 percent to 39 percent.
As far back as January - before the Legislature passed the voucher program - a Tribune poll showed similar results, with voters opposing vouchers 57 percent to 33 percent.
"What really stands out is the consistency in the numbers," Johnson said. "It's encouraging, but we are not going to stop working until Tuesday when the polls close."
The Tribune poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, asked: "If you were voting today, would you vote 'FOR' or 'AGAINST' HB 148 taking effect?" House Bill 148 is the law that opened the way for Utah to implement the most comprehensive voucher program in the nation.
The program would offer vouchers of $500 to $3,000, depending on family income, for each newly enrolled private school student. It would be the country's broadest voucher program because it has no income ceiling - all Utah students would be eligible as the program phased in over 13 years.
The law narrowly passed in the Legislature, where it was supported by Republican leaders, Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and business groups.
But voucher opponents, led by the Utah Education Association teachers' union, staged a successful petition drive that bounced the new law into a referendum.
The media campaign to sway voters is reaching a crescendo of direct mailings, TV and radio spots, and has consumed nearly $8.5 million so far, compared with the $5.5 million the program would cost the state in its first year.
Most of the opposition's $4.4 million has come from the National Education Association. Nearly three-quarters of the supporters' $4 million comes from Overstock.com chief executive Patrick Byrne and his family.
Although some national policy experts say Americans would more likely support a voucher program that is limited to the poor and has rigorous oversight, the Tribune poll did not find that sentiment among Utahns. Only 31 percent would support a low-income-only program to the 58 percent who still would oppose it.
But the poll found Utahns overwhelmingly support exploring education reforms other than vouchers.
Seventy-seven percent like the idea of merit pay for teachers, 70 percent would like to see full-fledged open enrollment in public schools and 61 percent like the idea of charter schools.
Barker said the apparent voter support for various "choice" reforms - but not vouchers - shows that the teachers' union has succeeded in its campaign to confuse voters on the issue.
"If people really took the time to understand the merits of the voucher program and set the rhetoric aside, they would support it," Barker said. "Everybody wins with vouchers."
But Johnson said the poll shows voters apparently like reforms - merit pay, open enrollment and charter schools - that are undertaken within the public school system.
"These are things we can do through the public schools that would serve all students and wouldn't create a second education system to be supported by taxpayers," Johnson said.
The margin of error for the poll, which surveyed 625 likely voters statewide, is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
