Salt Lake Tribune
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Deciphering the spin on vouchers
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2007, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

For most Utahns, the deciding issue in voting for or against the education vouchers is straightforward: Will vouchers help Utah's overburdened public system by broadening the private school option or hurt it by draining away crucial funding?

But getting a straight, let alone simple, answer to voucher financial questions is tough. Broadcast spots, lawmakers and debaters on both sides all sling numbers, from private tuition estimates to per-pupil costs, to fit their purposes.

The problem came to a head last week when pro-voucher lawmakers at town meetings promoted Utah's voucher program as a ''$1.4 billion projected savings to the public school system.''

The figure, from Legislature's Fiscal Analyst Office, is quoted in a promotional film produced by the Informed Voter Project, a political issue committee formed by pro-voucher lawmakers.

The $1.4 billion "savings" figure - calculated over the program's 13-year implementation cycle - has also popped up in debates.

Meanwhile, numbers adopted by the anti-voucher Utahns for Public Schools show the program will cost the state millions of dollars over the same period.

The figures in question are based on separate fiscal analysis memorandums requested by Sen. Curt Bramble (pro-voucher), Sen. Pat Jones and Rep. Kay McIff (both anti-voucher).

Legislative Fiscal Analyst Jonathan Ball said all the memos are accurate but were prepared to answer different questions.

Bramble asked for the "cost of educating in public schools all who would qualify for a [voucher] over the next 13 years." In other words, the cost to educate all the potential voucher students, even ones moving in from out of state, if they chose not to leave the public system.

Jones and McIff's memos dealt with the "nominal cost of vouchers to state government" - the state's voucher payout: $327 million. And, those memos set expected savings at $95 million (with per-student expenditure at $3,100) to $265 million (at a $7,700 student cost) over the same 13 years.

Utahns for Public Schools spokeswoman Lisa Johnson said Bramble's number represents the cost of educating all students who would qualify for vouchers and is not relevant to the debate.

"It's like shutting down all the private schools and sending those kids to public schools," she said.

The number, according to the analyst office, assumes several things, including average private school tuition at $6,800, an average voucher of $1,925 and no change in home-schooling rates.

Just about every one of these assumptions has been challenged by activists on both sides.

Ball declined to comment on the fairness of how either side is using his figures. The state voter-information pamphlet offers an "impartial analysis" of the voucher program, he said.

"If you want an estimate of the costs and savings of the voucher program, you should look at the Voter Information Pamphlet [figures]," he advised.

The importance of giving the public an easily digestible bottom line was evident last week when opponents were denied access to the research supporting what has become known as the "Bramble Memo."

The Fiscal Analyst Office denied the request, citing the state's Government Records Access and Management Act (GRAMA).

GRAMA, the office said, does not allow the public to see research provided to lawmakers - unless the legislator involved permits it. Jones and McIff gave the analyst's office permission to make the research public.

Bramble initially would not give permission to release research behind his memo. But late Friday, after several interviews with The Salt Lake Tribune, Bramble directed the Fiscal Analyst's office to release the information.

Voucher opponent Alan Smith, an attorney who is a member of Utahns for Public Schools, accused Bramble of "political gamesmanship" with the Fiscal Analyst's Office, undermining the agency.

"The office is supposed to have credibility - he's abused it for his own partisan ends," Smith said.

The timing of the Bramble memo, July 27, less than a month after the majority leader and other House and Senate voucher advocates formed a pro-voucher PIC, shows Bramble was using a state agency for political purposes, Smith said.

"Bramble asked for this memo in his PIC capacity, not as a legislator," Smith said. "Is Bramble a lawmaker or a member of a PIC?"

Bramble countered that Ball provided him with the cost figure during the voucher debate in February but didn't provide it on paper until July.

"This was not related to the formation of the PIC," he said. "I couldn't tell you what the PIC is doing or their current activities."

Bramble said he withheld permission to release the research because he felt the GRAMA process should be followed. "I don't know what the unintended consequences would be of waiving the standard for what is a public record."

He changed his mind when he learned that Jones and McIff allowed the release of their research.

Finally, because Utah has never had a voucher program, any cost information is questionable, Bramble said.

"We don't have a point of reference on student or parent or citizen activity with regard to vouchers or private schools," he said. "You do the best job you can, and part of the confusion rests in the assumptions you make."

What will vouchers cost Utah?

TV ads, debaters, door-to-door canvassers and town meetings have been spewing a spectrum of voucher program costs and savings. Utah's Legislative Fiscal Analyst recommends voters read the Information Pamphlet for the Nov. 6 referendum. It's available at http://elections.utah.gov/Citizen.htm and in public libraries.

Vouchers will cost the state:

* $5.5 million during the program's first year.

* $71 million during the program's 13th year, after all private school students have become eligible for a voucher.

* $429 million cumulative cost.

The costs will come from the state's general fund, not the education fund

School districts statewide will save:

* $2.4 million to $11.5 million during the program's first year.

* $11 million to $28 million during the programs 13th year.

* $95 million to $265 million cumulative savings over 13 years.

Source: Voter Information Pamphlet, Referendum No. 1.

As TV ads and debaters bombard Utahns with pros and cons, voters may have to do their own research
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