Becker, who swept a vast swath of neighborhoods across the rest of Utah's capital, did not carry a single precinct west of Interstate 15.

But an analysis of the mayoral map suggests the Nov. 6 showdown between Becker, the primary's top vote-getter and Democratic favorite in blue-hued Salt Lake City, and Buhler, the Republican, still appears lopsided.

In short, the map may not look bad for Buhler, but the math does.

Whatever headway Becker sacrificed on the west side, he more than made up on the east slope. Besides sweeping Capitol Hill, the Avenues and Federal Heights, Becker carried central city, Liberty Park and the Harvard-Yale neighborhoods. The Utah House minority leader also won a handful of precincts downtown and in Buhler country - the east bench.

"Their general strategy was to take Ralph to areas where he could get to know people that had a history of good turnout," said Wayne Holland, chairman of the Utah Democratic Party. "Primary voting being a low-turnout game, it was a very, very good strategy."

Even so, the west-end shutout - Buhler and Wilson dominated Fairpark, Rose Park, Poplar Grove and Glendale, leaving Becker in third - dropped some jaws.

"It's surprising," said Archie Archuleta, a Glendale resident and the city's former administrator of minority affairs. "The City Council members on the west side are Republican, and their constituencies came out very heavy."

Indeed, Buhler was endorsed by those council colleagues, Van Turner and Carlton Christensen. But the self-professed "underdog" argues his support runs deeper.

"I'm very encouraged by it," Buhler said, noting he pushed for the Pioneer police precinct and still has ties to fellow South High School alums. "This shows how this is a not a partisan race."

The race officially is nonpartisan, but left-leaning Salt Lake City has not elected a Republican mayor in more than three decades.

In the primary, Becker snared 38.5 percent of the vote, followed by Buhler's 27.7 percent and Wilson's 23.5 percent.

In one case, between 600 North and 1000 North just east of Redwood Road, Buhler bested Becker 111 votes to 38. Buhler is counting on that trend to continue to make up the overall margin.

"Dave worked hard on the west side," said Jeff Hartley, a former state GOP executive director who worked on the Keith Christensen campaign in the late stages. "I wouldn't underestimate Becker's appeal on the west side. My guess is Ralph will work hard to pick up those votes."

At the same time, Hartley predicts Buhler's work ethic may keep multiple Wilson precincts - presumed to go to Becker, a fellow Democrat - in play. "If Dave hustles, he may be able to pick up some of Jenny's precincts, purely on shoe leather."

But west-side apathy may blunt the impact.

In the four precincts that comprise the heart of Glendale, for example, Buhler outpolled Becker by roughly 100 votes combined. By comparison, Becker beat Buhler by 100 votes - and sometimes 200 - in each of six Avenues precincts and in two Harvard-Yale precincts.

Buhler topped Becker by more than 100 votes in a single precinct - Buhler's east-bench neighborhood.

"Obviously, I have a home base," Becker said about his Avenues-Capitol Hill legislative district. "In terms of the central city down through Sugar House, we did a lot of door-to-door concentration there." The precinct counts "seem to reflect where I was concentrating personally and that of the campaign on the ground."

Holland notes the Becker camp researched voting hot spots from the 1999 and 2003 mayoral primaries and determined the west sector simply was not worth it.

"It just doesn't produce in a primary," Holland said. "He was spending his time and resources on higher-turnout precincts."

Becker says he initially tried to hit every west-side doorstep. Later, after realizing the dearth of registered voters there, he scaled back.

"It's really unfortunate," Becker said. "There is a really large percentage who don't vote regularly."

That said, Archuleta expects to see a bigger Becker brigade west of the freeway over the next month.

"Becker did not do as well on the west side in terms of his volunteer force," he said. "But without Wilson in the race, that will change."

Archuleta also predicts Buhler will "rev up the engines" in the region.

Besides the west, Buhler's real strength came on the east bench - from the mouth of Emigration Canyon across the Foothill Drive corridor to Sugar House. Buhler picked up chunks along South Temple and a significant stretch of the city's south side, south of Interstate 80. His margins, however, did not match Becker's in the Avenues.

Wilson had her strongest showing in downtown precincts as well as the west side, while Christensen tied with Becker in one precinct, also downtown.

Since the primary, Becker and Buhler have spent time hitting west-end homes. But both say their ground campaigns must be citywide to be effective. Translation: Expect more volunteers near Foothill than Fairpark, Harvard-Yale than Glendale.

Again, the numbers provide the rationale.

Primary turnout in Glendale hovered near 20 percent, while it ticked slightly higher in Rose Park. By contrast, Avenues turnout ranged from 30 percent to 45 percent, with some precincts eclipsing 50.

The same was true across the east bench to Sugar House, where 35 percent was the norm and some precincts topped 40, even 50 percent.

Citywide, turnout stalled at 29 percent - near the historical primary marker - with barely 28,000 residents casting votes. That number is expected to spike, particularly with school vouchers on the ballot, for the fall finale.

"If turnout is average or high, it bodes well for Ralph," Hartley said. "If turnout is low and Dave can motivate people, he has a chance."

Buhler, who wants to send mailings to more houses and be less conservative with campaign spending, is counting on the extra voters a general election brings.

"You've got 20,000 to 30,000 people who haven't voted yet," said Buhler, who finished about 3,000 votes behind Becker in the primary. "That throws that math out the window. I'll just remind you, that for a year, the media singled Jenny Wilson as the front-runner. This is going to be the year of the underdog."

Becker, who bristles at being labeled the favorite, says he is recruiting still more volunteers to work every part of the city.

"I can tell from walking door to door on the west side, a lot of people didn't know me," he said. "I'm hoping to spend more time getting to know voters over there, but also letting them get to know me."

djensen@sltrib.com