The forecast for Salt Lake City's fall mayoral race appears the same: Becker vs. Buhler will be a blowout.

And that means "Blueprint Man" will be taking his plans to City Hall.

"Ralph will clean his clock," says Stuart Reid, who was flushed by Rocky Anderson in 1999. "It won't even be a contest."

Of course, Dave Buhler, a moderate Republican who argues "my views are in the mainstream," doesn't agree. Neither does Ralph Becker, a liberal Democrat, who bristles at the notion of being anointed.

"I don't buy it," Becker says. "If I accepted that kind of thinking about a campaign . . . I wouldn't be talking to you today."

In 1991, Democrat Deedee Corradini bounced Buhler from the capital mayor's race, 55 percent to 45 percent. And Salt Lake City is decidedly more liberal now.

So how can the moderate Mormon break through this time against Becker, a non-Mormon progressive, who seems to have the electoral deck stacked?

"His struggle for the next two months is to meet as many people as possible," says Kirk Jowers, director of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics. "Buhler needs to run a very aggressive out-of-the-box campaign to have a chance."

That said, the two-term city councilman should not go negative, Jowers says, unless he is desperately behind near the Nov. 6 finish.

Jowers notes Becker, the Utah House Democratic leader, enjoys all the momentum, swung a "huge number" of undecided residents in this week's primary, and has a motivated core of voters from his Avenues-Capitol Hill district.

"Becker needs to continue walking the pavement and show that he is not taking this race for granted," Jowers says. "The most important thing is that he not act like the foreordained winner."

Working with "the same intense effort" is in Becker's wheelhouse.

"We will be walking door to door," he vows. "We will be listening to people and meeting people and refining the ideas and initiatives we have for moving Salt Lake City forward."

Becker says there is no danger of a letup. He hopes to "intensify" his ground offensive and is "happy" to compare his record and successes against anybody.

"We didn't get here by accident."

For his part, Buhler says he plans to spring new policy ideas now that the primary election is past. He will sell his case as "a leader in city government," who has a broader background. And don't be surprised if he challenges Becker's effectiveness at the Legislature.

"Ralph is a great planner," Buhler says. "But there are a lot of other issues, like public safety and economic development that I want to stress.

"I'm probably an underdog, but that's OK. Ralph was the underdog a week ago."

Reid, who supported Keith Christensen in the officially nonpartisan contest, insists none of this strategy matters.

"The process has been repeated over and over again," he says about mayoral races in Utah's capital. "LDS voters will vote for the Republican. But when you get to the general, a liberal, non-Mormon will carry the day every time. And they will do so by at least 15 percent."

Reid notes the capital has not elected a Mormon since Ted Wilson, "and the Mormon numbers have dropped in the city since Ted was mayor. [Buhler] has no chance to be mayor."

What's more, Salt Lake City voters have not elected a Republican mayor in more than three decades.

"Ralph is going to knock it out of the park," former City Councilwoman Deeda Seed says, echoing the conventional wisdom.

The numbers, as Jowers concedes, are not on Buhler's side.

Even if Buhler won all of Christensen's primary support, the combined amount doesn't reach Becker's near-40 percent. And most observers believe Becker will inherit the Jenny Wilson vote, which would put him over 60 percent.

But Buhler, who points to his surge from 12 percent in the spring to 28 percent Tuesday, notes turnout will be much higher in November.

"We have to go after them," he says. "Maybe even some people who voted for Ralph will change their mind. It's a different election."

Jowers calls Becker a formidable candidate "who naturally appeals to a larger segment of voters."

But, he warns, Wilson was "seemingly safe and solid" a few months before her defeat.

Buhler, he says, ran the most solid campaign from start to finish and managed to build a positive brand image of himself.

"The people he needs to vote for him, probably are inclined but not committed to vote for Becker," Jowers says. "But a lot can happen in a campaign."

djensen@sltrib.com