But former Rep. Jim Hansen, who sat on the last federal Base Realignment and Closure commission (BRAC), cautions that Hill and its backers shouldn't count on it.

Hansen said Wednesday it is probable that future base closing commissions will consider the elimination of one of three Air Force logistics centers, including Hill.

"I would not be too surprised if one of the three remaining air logistics centers goes on the list in 2012, when I think there is going to be another round of BRAC," said Hansen, a Utah Republican. "In my opinion, I think that it is very likely they will do just that."

Hansen's comments came in response to a recent Congressional Research Service report suggesting that the procurement of a squadron of the Department of Defense's most advanced jet fighter, the F-35 Lightning, might inoculate a base against future rounds of BRAC.

"The F-35 is thought by many to be the last manned aircraft that DOD is likely to develop and is projected to be in service long after other combat aircraft have been retired," the report stated.

"Those wishing to keep military bases relevant and to potentially 'BRAC-proof' them, may compete vigorously" for future squadrons.

But while the military last year said Hill would be one of just six locations to host an F-35 squadron, Hansen said there are only two Air Force bases in the nation he believes are immune to being cut: Andrews Air Force Base, home of Air Force One, and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, home to the Air Force Materiel Command.

"Other than that, everything is wide open," he said, noting that future commissioners likely would take notice of redundancies in services offered at Hill and two other Air Logistics Centers, Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma and Robins Air Force Base in Georgia.

And, he said, a single squadron of "birds" wouldn't be enough to convince commissioners to turn their attention elsewhere.

Hansen said that while maintaining a flying component is important - "what good is an Air Force base that doesn't fly?" he argued - it wasn't enough.

"When I was on base closing, we moved birds all over the place," he said.

Hansen said Hill's proximity to the Utah Test and Training Range - the largest such facility in the continental United States - and its work with ballistic missiles were better arguments for its survival than the proposed F-35.

Vikki McCall, former head of the Utah Defense Alliance and a current adviser to Air Force Chief of Staff Michael Moseley, said Hill would need to present a "package" of unbeatable, unmatchable services to ensure survival through a future round of BRAC.

But part of the package, she said, should definitely be the Lightning. "There's no reason to be alarmed right now, so long as the F-35 is destined for Hill," McCall said, noting that cost overruns and defense spending cuts have reduced the number of jets expected to be brought into the Air Force's weapons inventory.

"The numbers continue to dwindle," she said. "That's the real issue - how many and when are we going to get the F-35?"

The Air Force last year said Lightning would strike Utah sometime after 2009. But officials at Hill aren't certain.

"I have no projected date and no concrete information," said base spokeswoman Capt. Ashley Norris.

mlaplante@sltrib.com