Contenders including Republicans former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, along with Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York, are all poised to claim that success in the money wars gives them political momentum.

Bloomberg News reports that the candidates' ability to meet expectations -- set by campaign-finance experts, political consultants and lawmakers -- has become a test of their potential to stand out in a crowded 2008 field and compete in the expensive early round of primaries and caucuses.

"If you're not showing the ability to raise substantial amounts and start to pile up cash by this point, it's increasingly difficult to see how a candidate is going to be able to win the nomination," said Anthony Corrado, a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, Maine.

Candidates begin releasing their numbers as early as Sunday, two weeks before the official deadline for reporting to the U.S. Federal Election Commission.

Thus far, the Darwinian money quest has divided the field into three main categories: leaders Obama, Clinton, Romney and Giuliani; laggards such as John McCain and John Edwards; and strivers including Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden.

Flush With Cash

Obama and Clinton are poised to match or exceed the $25 million-plus each collected in the first quarter. Both will be flush with cash, capable of funding their campaigns in the first six weeks of 2008.

Both have said only that they will raise more than $20 million this quarter and, in an attempt to raise the bar for their competition, suggested that the other will bring in more. Bragging rights will go to the candidate with the most cash.

A similar fight on the Republican side pits Romney, who last quarter raised $23.4 million including $2.4 million of his own money, and Giuliani, who took in $16.6 million. Romney made a similar donation to his campaign for the second quarter, spokesman Kevin Madden said. Both Republicans are aiming to approach $20 million this quarter, a little shy of what top Democrats will raise.

Teetering on the Edge

Teetering on the edge of falling from the Republican first tier, Arizona Senator McCain has the most to lose if he can't improve on his first quarter, when he raised $13.1 million, trailing Romney by $10 million. He must close the gap with Romney and Giuliani soon or face growing speculation that the wheels are coming off his campaign.

McCain, more than any other candidate, can't afford a fundraising dip, said Rogan Kersh, associate dean of New York University's Wagner School of Public Service. After the first quarter, McCain overhauled his fundraising operation, though he continues to struggle with donors and has dropped steadily in national polls.

If McCain "is again in a weak third place or lower, that could signal the beginning of the end," Kersh said.

McCain spokesman Danny Diaz said the campaign had dozens of June fundraising events. He declined to estimate the campaign's second-quarter take.

Democrat Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, says he'll fall short of his first-quarter total of $14 million. If so, he runs the risk of not being seen as a viable alternative to Clinton or Obama.

Maintain Position

Edwards had raised just half of his first-quarter haul -- $7.4 million -- through Tuesday. He "wants to maintain his position as the alternative to Clinton and Obama and doesn't want to be seen as falling back into the pack," Corrado said.

The key among three other Democrats -- New Mexico Governor Richardson and Senators Dodd of Connecticut and Biden of Delaware -- will be who raises more than the others and who comes close to or eclipses Edwards.

In the first quarter, Richardson collected $6.2 million and Dodd and Biden $4 million apiece. Richardson will beat his first- quarter figure, spokesman Paul Shipley said.

In the long-shot category, Republicans such as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback need to raise more than $5 million to boost their viability. Brownback took in $1.9 million in the first quarter; Huckabee $544,157.

'Several Million Dollars'

"Candidates who haven't raised at least several million dollars are going to have to really assess their position," former FEC General Counsel Larry Noble said.

Frantic fundraising activity is continuing right up to the deadline. Yesterday Clinton held a $4,600-a-plate fundraiser with Warren Buffett, chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The host committee included Roger Altman, co- chairman of New York-based Evercore Partners Inc., and John Mack, chairman of New York-based Morgan Stanley. The event raised about $1 million, Clinton campaign spokesman Blake Zeff said.

Obama scheduled fundraisers in Cleveland, Boston, Houston and Youngstown, Ohio. Romney held a barbecue at Boston's Fenway Park baseball stadium on June 24 and then joined supporters who made 20,000 phone calls to potential contributors.

Looming over the Republican field is the possible entry of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson into the race. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll taken June 7-10 put Thompson in second place behind Giuliani with voters nationwide. Though Thompson is raising money as he explores a bid, he doesn't have to disclose his finances unless he runs.