This snapshot could be Washington County in 2035 - or life could be much different.
Picture shoppers climbing into their cars in Hurricane and deciding which freeway to take and which suburban mall or mega-store to hit. They pass neighborhood after neighborhood - where some homes sneak up hillsides or snake alongside rivers and many boast spacious yards, front and back. The shoppers then jostle for parking spots with workers at office parks throughout the area.
Which vision will emerge? Or will it be something between these extremes? Vision Dixie may decide that. At the least, it's helping residents focus on the future.
The sweeping planning project has crafted four growth scenarios for how an estimated 400,000 residents will live, work, play, shop and commute in booming southwestern Utah three decades from now.
Make no mistake: Life will change. Growth will come. More people needing more water, more jobs, more services, more space.
But the four scenarios, sprouting from 13 workshops and involving 1,200 residents, will help the county and cities overhaul or fine-tune their plans and, perhaps, ease some of the growing pains.
Starting this week, residents will get the chance to study the four projections at a series of workshops throughout the region. The first is Tuesday at 6 p.m. at St. George's Dixie Center.
"We want to know what people like about each scenario, and then we'll come up with a preferred plan that will be a hybrid of those scenarios," explained Kevin Fayles, a community-relations manager for the public-private planning partnership Envision Utah, which the County Commission hired to assemble the data collected by a Vision Dixie steering committee.
Roger Carter, city manager for Washington City, embraces cluster housing for his community just north of St. George.
"A lot of how we grow depends on our resources like water, so we encourage a smaller lot size and open space," Carter said. "What we don't want to see is urban sprawl."
Farther north, Leeds Mayor Trudy Law wants to explore the idea of town houses in her tiny town to accommodate elderly residents when they no longer can care for their current St. George homes, usually built on large lots.
"It would be nice to offer them something comfortable and affordable," she said, "so they can stay in the community."
During the earlier workshops, Fayles said, participants pasted paper chips on maps to show where they wanted to see housing, commercial areas, open areas and roads - or no roads.
"Our point was not to philosophize about the future, but problem-solve," he said.
Those suggestions, including 112 maps, then were incorporated into the final four scenarios.
Now residents will use real-time technology to vote on different elements in the scenarios before a final plan goes to the Washington County Commission.
James Eardley, the commission chairman, said Vision Dixie grew out of the sometimes-heated debate surrounding a Washington County land-use bill, now awaiting congressional approval.
"We voluntarily entered into [Vision Dixie] in cooperation with all the [county's] municipalities," he said, "to offer guidelines that, when finished, will guide us into the future."
Of course, the cities need not follow those growth guidelines, although Eardley believes most will.
"The [guidelines] do not have the force of law," he said, "but will have the force of public opinion."
Lin Alder, a member of the Vision Dixie steering committee, praised Envision Utah's work during a process that saw its share of politics.
For instance, Alder said some were disappointed that St. George insisted the plans include a highway corridor connecting the city's east and west sides. And some balked that the Lake Powell pipeline project was not included in the discussions. The proposed pipeline would pump water from Lake Powell to Washington County to support an additional 40,000 residents.
"We agreed that the [Vision Dixie] project be driven by principle," Alder said, "and not by projects like the pipeline."
Alder hopes cities use at least some elements in the scenarios to shape or reshape their planning and zoning ordinances.
Springdale Mayor Pat Cluff welcomes the forward thinking and is glad that her small town on the edge of Zion National Park - along with the tiny nearby communities of Rockville and Virgin - were included in the process.
"We have to look at why people want to move here in the first place," she said, "and protect those things."
Cluff notes that her constituents were less inclined to promote growth than others during the earlier workshops. When the paper chips were passed around, for example, some Springdale residents simply tossed many of them back into the envelope.
"We were accused of not playing the game," Cluff said, "but we had to be heard."
And now Washington County residents have another chance to be heard before planners and politicians put the final touches on what could be their future.
mhavnes@sltrib.com
Scenario A
* Most residential growth occurs beyond cities in separated groupings of large-lot, single-family homes. Employment growth happens in major business areas away from most neighborhoods. People shop in big-box centers and enclosed malls. To accommodate this growth, some federal lands convert to private ownership.
* The St. George metro area develops a ring of new freeways connected to Interstate 15. Bus service extends farther into neighboring cities and operates as frequently as it does now.
* Flood plains and designated critical habitat are conserved for recreation or open space. Development sometimes occurs on steeper slopes, ridge tops and animal habitat.
Scenario B
*Most residential growth occurs beyond cities in single-family subdivisions, with some lot sizes smaller than recent growth. Employment growth happens mostly away from residential areas. Most people shop at big-box centers and enclosed malls, with some retail at Main Street-type stores. Some federal lands eyed for annexation switch to private ownership.
* A freeway arc links the east and west sides of St. George to Interstate 15 south of city. Bus service stretches farther into neighboring cities and operates more frequently.
* Steeper slopes, flood plains and designated critical habitat are conserved for recreation or open space. Development sometimes occurs on ridge tops and animal habitat.
Scenario C
* Most growth occurs adjacent to cities. Growth takes the form of villages where single-family housing surrounds a center that mixes offices, shopping, condos and town houses. Growth also fills in vacant developable land within cities. To accommodate this growth, some federal lands within cities flip to private ownership.
* A boulevard links east and west St. George. A rapid busway, essentially light rail on rubber tires, begins. Bus service reaches farther into neighboring cities and runs more frequently.
* Ridge tops, river corridors, steeper slopes, flood plains and designated critical habitats are conserved for recreation and open space.
Scenario D
* Most residential growth occurs within city limits by filling in vacant developable land and through reuse of commercial and industrial areas. This growth places a mix of jobs, shopping, condos and town houses at the center of cities with single-family housing nearby. To accommodate this growth, little, if any, federal land falls under private ownership.
* A new major street links east and west St. George. Light rail comes on line in St. George. Bus service stretches farther into neighboring cities and operates more frequently.
* Ridge tops, river corridors, steeper slopes, flood plains, designated critical habitat and areas set aside to link these features are conserved for recreation and open spaces.
Sources: Vision Dixie and Envision Utah (see www.visiondixie.org)
