With the deficient chad preserved in museums and history books, young analysts in Michael Lyons' Political Science Research Methods class surveyed everything but a crystal ball to make their predictions. Public opinion polls, expert analyses, debates and even the trash-talking ads were fodder for the midterm project.

In summation Monday afternoon, the students anticipated that the House will go to the Democrats and the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate with a 50-50 split of the seats.

Senior Molly Barker said the Democrats will take the House because "people are kind of fed up with the current administration and ready for a change."

Although they may not have the right solution, Barker said, at least Democrats are voicing opposition to the war in Iraq - something many Republicans can't do because of party loyalty.

Lyons won't grade his students on their picks, only the quality of their research. After hearing their logic, Lyons said he stands behind their choices.

"I wouldn't make a different prediction myself than they have," Lyons said. "They took this seriously."

It wasn't an easy assignment for USU junior Megan Sonderegger, who was dismayed as candidates in the Missouri Senate race switched leads in public opinion polls eight times in the past 10 days. When the polls open this morning, Sonderegger has Republican Jim Talent fingered as the loser to Democrat Claire McCaskill.

"I've learned that the political process isn't just based on straight politics. People are going to vote on the issues, as well as their emotions and feelings - especially uninformed voters," Sonderegger said. "I didn't realize how much appearance is taken into account."

Participant Matt Ivers predicted a win in the heated Texas House District 22 race for Democrat Nick Lampson over write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs, a Republican.

"Politics is a much sturdier business than I thought. It's very cutthroat," Ivers said.

Calling this "the dirtiest race ever," senior Christopher Boyd said all the switches can only mean one thing.

"It can change at any time," Boyd said. "It may come down in some of these races to the weather." Whether you call it "sturdy" or "dirty" business, Lyons said all Americans can benefit from closely examining the races, especially the Republican-dominated population of Utah, which is largely isolated from the political drama that is playing out across the nation today.

"In competitive campaigns, the commercials manipulate and exaggerate, but they also provoke thought," Lyons said. "Voters do see both sides. It's almost fair to say that in Utah we see neither side, which is really kind of sad."

abrunson@sltrib.com

USU students predict:

* Republicans will maintain control of the Senate with a 50-50 split of the seats.

* The House will go to the Democrats with between 225 and 232 seats and between 203 and 210 going to the Republicans.