Salt Lake Tribune
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Residents ask, How long will the energy boom last?
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2006, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

VERNAL - There's an old saying in rural Utah: You can tell when a boom is going to bust when people start insisting that this one is different.

But economic-development officials say changing world markets and increased demand make this eastern Utah energy rush unlike previous oil bonanzas. This time around, exploration for natural gas represents about three-quarters of the area's activity.

"With [natural] gas, we don't have to rely on OPEC to set prices. And [natural] gas is the fuel of choice" said Bill Johnson, economic-development director for Uintah County. "There will be a leveling off, but there will be no slowdown in fossil-fuel development."

But folks who have lived in the Uinta Basin long enough to remember the last boom hold fast to the theory that whatever goes up must one day come down.

Like most in these parts, Jill Goodman hopes the good times just keep rolling. Her McDonald's franchises in Roosevelt and Vernal are packed - breakfast, lunch and dinner.

"I would like to expand the restaurants, both of them. But all of us are sitting here, saying: 'How can you make this huge investment when we've seen what has happened in the past?' We're just not confident."

Oil booms here in the early 1960s, mid-'70s and mid-'80s brought with them the fever pitch of a gold rush.

When the spigot turned off, however, people were left holding expensive investments and loan payments with few jobs and little income.

"That's the heartbreaker," said Gayle McKeachnie, a Basin native and the governor's adviser on rural Utah. "People have lost their homes and their life savings. When the boom ends, people get mean."

Seasoned businessmen, like Dan Karren at Dan's Tire Service in Roosevelt, have learned to roll with the ups and downs of the area's energy exploration.

"You enjoy the good times when they're here and prepare for when it won't be so good," he said. "There are all kinds of reasons to think this could last. But everything in the oil field is on wheels. It can be moved out. So don't over-extend."

The good fortune now being reaped in eastern Utah could last awhile, said John Baza, director of the state Division of Oil, Gas and Mining.

The previous booms here spanned about five years each.

"If you ask me if we could keep this up for five years, I'd say, 'Yeah, we probably can,' '' he said. "As long as the price holds up, people will continue their [exploration] activities. But the markets are unpredictable."

csmart@sltrib.com

kstewart@sltrib.com

Those who remember the last one know that what goes up must one day come down
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