National Weather Service hydrologist Brian McInerney said last week that with the exception of San Juan County, in the southeast corner of the state, all regions of Utah have received enough rain and snowfall since last October to recharge groundwater supplies and refill most reservoirs.
And the good news, McInerney says, is that another moist year could be around the corner, given what appears to be a moderate El Niño cycle building in the equatorial Pacific.
"We're moving from neutral conditions to warmer ocean surface waters from Ecuador to Australia," said McInerney, who is based at the National Weather Service's Salt Lake City office. "We're now in a slight El Niño. But it's very possible we're going into a moderate El Niño, which traditionally means wetter conditions for southern Utah, and to a lesser extent northern Utah, depending on how far north the subtropical jet stream goes.
"When you look at an El Niño event," he added, "the wet years outnumber the dry years."
That could be good news for Lake Powell, the state's largest reservoir. After a year of normal to above-normal precipitation in the upper Colorado River Basin, a hotter, dryer-than-normal spring ushered in an early snowmelt - which in turn led to a below-average year for inflow into Powell, the largest water-storage facility in the upper basin.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation currently pegs the reservoir's 2006 inflow at just 72 percent of average.
"While drought conditions eased in 2005 and the inflow of 2006 is not as extremely low as what occurred in 2000 through 2004, drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin persist," the Bureau said in a statement.
Lake Powell is currently at just 49 percent of capacity with a water-surface elevation nearly 100 feet below full pool, according to the agency.
Bear Lake, in northern Utah, has also been slower to refill. But hydrologist McInerney says the state's other major reservoirs are at normal to above-normal levels for this time of year.
"The reservoirs have been drawn down because of use, but overall they've gained ground because of the increased runoff during the past few years," McInerney said.
Meanwhile, water usage, at least in the Salt Lake City area, continues to be significantly lower than at the beginning of the decade - proof positive, the city's water-conservation coordinator says, that conservation efforts that began during the five-year drought have taken root.
"The summer of 2006 was hotter than any summer we've had, so we expected to see higher use," said Stephanie Duer. "But in terms of our baseline year - 2000 - we're still way down. In Salt Lake City we had some days this summer with more [water] deliveries than the same day last year, but we were also hotter.
"What you see," she added, "is that while there were days of more water usage, we also saw days with less water usage, which means water use is being based on the weather, which is exactly what we want to see."
In 2000, Duer noted, the Salt Lake City water district delivered 190 to 200 gallons per capita household per day on the hottest days. This year, peak deliveries ranged from 170 to 182 gallons.
"That's a significant decrease in usage," she said. "In August our highest peak delivery was 162 [gallons per capita], and August was hot."
The new water year, which begins today, appears to be getting off to a promising start. McInerney says a big storm system is expected to move into Utah this week, bringing with it what he expects to be a "pretty significant" amount of rainfall.
"These aren't scattered thunderstorms. This is a big system, a wide weather pattern that is anticipated to produce a lot of rain and additional moisture for the soil," he said.
jbaird@sltrib.com
