Ponder this: Just 2,100 people could -- for all intents and purposes -- pick a senator to represent nearly 3 million Utahns.
That is the crux of a long-standing debate given new life as of late over whether the method Utah uses to select its political candidates ultimately produces office holders elected by the fringes of both parties who fail to represent the interests and desires of mainstream Utahns.
"It's a political boss system," Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, said during a forum Tuesday. "Very few [insiders] can decide without the annoyance of all these people getting in the way."
No other state makes it so difficult for a candidate to make it to a primary, Jowers said.
Republican Sen. Bob Bennett and Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson are the latest Utah candidates to have their orthodoxy questioned by the wings of their respective party, but they are certainly not the first.
But the system has its proponents.
Gov. Gary Herbert says the convention system has advantages over a primary system, which are driven by money and popularity.
"It allows anybody to come and participate and say 'Pick me.' An average guy like Gary Herbert who has no celebrity status, no fortune to spend, could go talk to those 3,400 delegates and say, 'Here's what I would do if I'm elected,'" the governor said. "I think that is a unique opportunity for anyone to participate and come and have success."
Utah Republican Party Chairman Dave Hansen said it makes candidates pay attention to their party and delegates who are serious about their duty, demanding face-to-face meetings with the hopefuls.
"They're not going to be told who to vote for. They're going to find out themselves," Hansen said. "Is the average Utahn better-served by a system where all they see is some TV ads and some mail and that's it?"
Those making the decisions, in either party, do not reflect the general Utah population, either demographically or politically, according to data from polls conducted for The Salt Lake Tribune and The Utah Foundation.
For example: Just three out of every 10 Republican delegates are women, according to The Tribune survey. By contrast, 55 percent of GOP voters in the 2008 election were women, according to the Utah Foundation. For Democrats, 43 percent of delegates and 60 percent of voters are women.
"Why does Utah have the lowest number of elected female officials in the country?" Jowers asked. "Now we know a good clue. ... There are not enough women who are part of our system who are making these selections."
The Tribune poll found 87 percent of GOP delegates were Mormons. Statewide, about 60 percent of Utahns are members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
And the Utah Foundation poll, conducted by The Cicero Group, found a wide disconnect between the views of the delegates from both parties and voters from respective parties and at large.
For example, 90 percent of Republican delegates and 5 percent of Democratic delegates want the federal health care reform law repealed. By comparison, 78 percent of GOP voters and 10 percent of Democratic voters favor repeal. The average for the state is 64 percent.
The Foundation poll was also sponsored by the Deseret News , KSL-TV and the Hinckley Institute.
Wayne Holland, chairman of the Utah Democratic Party, said the success or failure of the convention system hinges on people turning out for their neighborhood caucuses.
"The average Utahn, if they wanted more involvement in who the nominees are, would get more involved and go to their precinct meetings," he said.
But as a practical matter, said Randy Shumway of The Cicero Group, Utah's next senator could be chosen May 8 at the Republican State Convention by as few as 2,100 delegates. If any of the Republican candidates get 60 percent of the delegate vote, there will be no primary and odds are long for the Democratic challenger to upset the Republican, based on Utah's track record.
"If they come out without a primary, there will be no election whatsoever for Utah's next senator," Shumway said.
Bennett and Matheson are not the only candidates who face choppy waters at convention. The Tribune poll found 71 percent of GOP delegates would dump six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch if they could this year.
In 2004, Gov. Olene Walker was bounced out of convention, despite an approval rating above 70 percent. And in 2000, Republican delegates booed both Hatch and then-Gov. Mike Leavitt and forced Leavitt into a primary with a little-known opponent.
Bennett said Friday in an interview there is some elegance to a system where the party activists cull the field of candidates. The embattled senator witnessed the evolution of the system up-close, when party leaders set an 80 percent threshold for candidates to avoid a primary in an attempt to spare Bennett's father a primary "just because this nut can afford a filing fee."
Bennett was his father's vote-counter and the senior Bennett got 79.5 percent. After that the parties lowered the bar to 70 percent and, subsequently, to 60 percent, a target he has said since he first ran for office in 1992 was too low.
"What you're doing is deliberately trying to eliminate the participation of the people in choosing a nominee," he said. "I'm paying the price this time, but I think the original idea behind it had some merit."
Holland said there is talk in nearly every election year of reforming the convention system. The last one he had was in 2008 with then-Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. where, Holland said, they discussed concerns that "extreme right candidates are harmful" to the GOP convention system.
"That seems to be kind of the product right now of a system that was well-intended, but the extreme right has the Republican Party held hostage right now," Holland said. While Matheson faces opposition from the left, he said it is not nearly to the degree the Republicans are experiencing.
» Just 53.8 percent of Utah's eligible voting-age population cast ballots in the last election, a lower participation rate than in 47 other states and the District of Columbia.
» Utah's voter participation rate declined 5.1 percentage points since 2004, a bigger drop than in any other state.
Source: The Governor's Commission on Strengthening Democracy
» Party conventions play a significant role in just seven states, including Utah.
» Most states -- 38 -- select nominees through a primary election.
» Five states hold conventions to pick legislative candidates but hold primaries for statewide nominees.
Source: The Governor's Commission on Strengthening Democracy

