Washington » Sen. Orrin Hatch should count himself fortunate he is not up for re-election this year -- otherwise Republican delegates might have bounced Utah's longest-serving U.S. senator.
And Rep. Jason Chaffetz might be kicking himself for not chasing a U.S. Senate seat this year. Could a 2012 pursuit beckon Utah's newest congressman?
A new Salt Lake Tribune poll of delegates to the GOP's May 8 state convention shows 71 percent would be inclined to nominate someone other than Hatch if he were on this year's ballot.
The six-term senator couldn't even muster a favorable rating from a majority of the delegates, according to the poll, which carries a 4.4 percent margin of error. Forty-five percent gave him an unfavorable rating and 44 percent a favorable one.
Republican delegates weren't divided about Chaffetz. They like him, with 82 percent viewing him favorably -- the highest rating of any Utahn in Congress or any of this year's major GOP candidates for Senate.
Those numbers come as sweet news for Chaffetz, but may leave a bit of a sour taste since the freshman House member flirted with the idea of taking on Sen. Bob Bennett this year. Bennett's unfavorable rating, according to The Tribune 's delegate survey, was 61 percent compared with 28 percent favorable.
"I have no regrets," Chaffetz said Monday. "I'm still counting the number of months I've been here."
Chaffetz, now in his second year in the House, declined to say whether his poll numbers would open up an opportunity for him to jump to the Senate in two years, when Hatch plans to seek a seventh term.
"I will continue to keep all my options open," Chaffetz said. "It certainly is flattering and it puts a big smile on my face, but that's a long ways away."
Hatch said he understands and shares the frustration of Utahns about government spending and growing debt but that he's battling for conservative values in Washington and needs to return after 2012 as an experienced senator to continue pushing those principles.
"I am on their side," Hatch said. "We're on the same page, and I am fighting for Utah in a way that very few people can."
Hatch said he feels the anger out there, but insists he enjoys the backing of most Utahns.
"Polls go up and polls go down," he said. "I've seen recent polls where I enjoy support from a vast majority of Utahns."
Brigham Young University political scientist Kelly Patterson said the latest poll numbers reflect the anti-Washington, anti-incumbency mood sweeping the country -- a point buttressed in the survey, which showed 68 percent of Utah's Republican delegates see themselves as supporters of the tea-party movement.
"People become associated with the Washington establishment in the minds of these delegates, and it's really hard to persuade them otherwise," Patterson said. "Clearly, they're frustrated with this political process, and there are times when it's difficult for an incumbent to run against Washington."
Bennett's battles this year and the other poll numbers offer Hatch a chance to head off his own right-wing fight.
"The good news [for Hatch] is that it's two years away, and two years is an awfully long time in politics," Patterson said. "Moods can change and problems can get solved. He has two years to recraft, reshape any part of his image he would like."
This wouldn't mark the first time Hatch has faced a wary electorate.
The senator got booed at the state GOP convention in 2000, along with then-Gov. Mike Leavitt. Both then coasted to re-election that fall.
Hatch, vice chairman of the incumbent-supporting National Republican Senatorial Committee, has warned tea party Republicans against fractionalizing the party, noting it could allow Democrats to prevail in some races.
In some ways, Chaffetz provided a road map for this year's Senate challengers when, in 2008, he ran to the right of then-Rep. Chris Cannon and knocked out a six-term incumbent House member.
Could a six-term senator be next?

