Utah's Dixie could receive as much as five inches of rain this week but no one is expecting a repeat of the devastating floods that wiped out homes and caused thousands of dollars in damages in January 2005.
Glen Merrill, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, said there are two big reasons widespread flooding is unlikely in southwestern Utah.
First, rainfall totals are not expected to be as big. Second, snow levels are not as high as they were in 2005. That year, the snow level was between 5,000 and 6,000 feet when more than 10 inches of rain fell on the snow. Forecasters are predicting mountains near St. George will get snow, not rain, this time.
Most of Utah should expect unsettled weather conditions through next weekend, though the biggest effects of the storms will be in central and southern Utah. Northern Utah, where ski resorts need more snow and water watchers are concerned about drought, will get less precipitation.
"We could see between one and two inches of water, but that is getting on the high side," said Merrill of northern Utah. "The storms are much weaker up here. We could get between 10 and 18 inches of snowfall with local amounts approaching two feet between now and Saturday."
Ski resorts are hoping for more. An influx of out-of-state visitors are expected before the Outdoor Retail Winter Market show in Salt Lake City begins on Wednesday with an on-snow demo day at Snowbasin near Ogden.
Snowbird's Jared Ishkanian said that resort received a few inches of snow Monday morning but that the snow was heavier than normal, giving groomers a nice base to build upon.
"Looking at the forecast for later this week, we are optimistic," he said. "We are hopeful that this storm will deliver the kind of snow we've been waiting for. With Outdoor Retailer in town this weekend, a lot of people have come early to ski. They are accustomed to powdery January Utah conditions, and this storm is timed perfectly for their visit."
The forecast for the Salt Lake area calls for a 70 percent chance of snow on Tuesday, dropping to 30 percent in the evening. On Wednesday, the chance of snow is 40 percent, building to 60 percent that night and 70 percent on Thursday. Temperatures could be mild, though, reaching the 40s during the day and high 20s at night. The snow and temperature forecast is similar for St. George, except the chance of precipitation is even higher: 80 percent on Tuesday, and 90 percent on Wednesday and Thursday.
The storms could help clear out pollution and smoggy conditions in Wasatch Front Valleys, though the Division of Air Quality still had yellow warnings issued for Tuesday and Wednesday from Salt Lake County north to Logan.
Despite lighter than normal traffic Monday morning because of the Martin Luther King holiday, a light snowstorm that hit in the early hours caused a rash of accidents on Interstates 15 and 215 from 6:30 to 9:30 a.m.
Most crashes occurred on I-15 between 5200 South and northern Davis County. By 10 a.m., the Utah Highway Patrol had reported 106 crashes, nine with injuries, in Salt Lake, Utah and Davis counties.
Tribune reporter Jason Bergreen contributed to this report.
