Utah state government has shed nearly 2,000 jobs during the current budget crisis, and could lose nearly 1,000 more in the coming year unless the budget picture changes.

With a bleak economic picture ahead, lawmakers got a sense Tuesday of what deep cuts to the state budget will mean -- increased school class sizes, the closure of clinics for children with special health needs, and services to the poor and disabled being stretched even thinner.

And there is no reason for optimism.

Tax collections have been coming up short, the state's unemployment rate has been climbing and the anticipation, said Senate budget chairman Lyle Hillyard, R-Logan, is that the budget outlook is getting worse.

"I think more people are realizing we're just going to have to suck it up," said Senate Majority Leader Sheldon Killpack, R-Syracuse. "I think the only way you will avoid [cuts] is with massive tax increases, and I don't see that happening."

Public education is one of the few state agencies asking lawmakers to help it avoid cuts, but to do that, legislators would have to find $293 million to replace cuts that are scheduled to take effect next July.

Even then, the funding would not cover the costs of an estimated 11,000 new students who are expected to enroll in public schools next year. Normally it would cost $67 million to educate those children, but Larry Shumway, superintendent of the Utah State Office of Education, said education officials are not asking for money for those students.

That will result in bigger classes, less pay for teachers, and less support in the classroom, Shumway said, and that can have long-term repercussions.

"There is a long-term detriment to society as a whole, to our work force, to our communities," he said. "Somewhere down the road is where we will see the effects in certain parts of our community."

But legislators seemed skeptical. House Speaker Dave Clark, R-Santa Clara, said public schools still have 95 percent of the funding they had before the recession.

The only way lawmakers could have done more, said House budget chairman Ron Bigelow, R-West Valley City, is to find more money "which would have meant a big tax increase. Not little, big. Extra big. Humungous."

Hillyard said he also doesn't think it's realistic for education to avoid cuts because, from his meetings with Gov. Gary Herbert, it's his impression that "Governor Herbert won't be as protective of public education as Governor [Jon] Huntsman was."

Lawmakers are already looking at having to cover a shortfall of up to $850 million when they meet in January, and that number could grow before then. The gap includes about $460 million of cuts that were made during the last session, that will take effect next July unless legislators find money to roll them back.

The scheduled reductions could also result in tangible changes to other parts of state government.

It could mean the elimination of the General Assistance program if federally mandated Medicaid and food stamp caseloads continue to grow. General Assistance has already seen 600 fewer people receiving the aid, intended to give temporary help to mentally or physically disabled people to help them keep their homes.

"We're very concerned about General Assistance surviving this session," said Melissa Smith, an advocate with the Community Action Partnership of Utah. "If we're going to continue funding [homeless prevention] programs, we need to not cut a program that helps prevent homelessness and could put 1,000 people out on the street."

Utah is still in much better shape than other states, said John Nixon, the governor's budget director. Arizona, for example, has a 32 percent budget shortfall, and Nevada has used short-term revenues to plug long-term budget holes.

"I wouldn't want to be in any other state," he said. "Maybe North Dakota" which hasn't been affected by the recession.