Utah unit hoping for more peaceful Iraq this time

Many soldiers from the Utah-based 96th Sustainment Brigade have done a tour in Iraq. But when the unit's 339 soldiers reach that war torn nation later this summer, they'll likely arrive in a country much different than the one they saw previously.

They're hoping for a more peaceful nation -- but there are no guarantees. Either way, the logistics unit will be busy, supplying U.S. forces with food, water, ammunition, fuel and other necessities while helping to organize the orderly exit of more than 130,000 military members and tens of thousands of civilian contractors.

Boosted by security gains realized over the past two years in Iraq, the U.S. military on Tuesday completed a withdrawal from Iraqi towns and cities. For

the most part, foreign troops are now required to remain on U.S. bases unless specifically requested by local authorities. The Obama Administration is hoping that change will predicate a full removal of U.S. troops by the end of 2011. With similar optimism, Iraqi officials declared Tuesday "Victory Day" and have declared a public holiday.

But victory is far from assured.

National security experts and military leaders say they expect a resurgence of violence as the U.S. military occupation of Iraq draws to a close. Indeed, more than 250 people have been killed in Iraq since June 20, according to the Associated Press. That recent spike in violence mars what has been a relative lull in sectarian fighting since the

middle of 2007.

If things continue to go badly, the soldiers of the 96th could find themselves trying to deflect a logistical debacle: Evacuating U.S. forces on a shortened timeline in the middle of a multi-factional civil war.

Independent Institute fellow Ivan Eland believes that "worst-case" scenario is possible -- even likely. The author of "Partitioning for Peace: An Exit Strategy for Iraq" believes that the current U.S. strategy for withdrawal gives little consideration to underlying sectarian tensions -- the same tensions that gave rise to the deadly civil war fought between Sunni and Shi'a rivals from 2004 to 2007.

"The various groups have been keeping their powder dry," said Eland of the relative peace that has swept over Iraq since the summer of 2007. "The Sunnis finally wised up and said, 'Why fight the Americans when they will be leaving anyway? Why waste the resources?'"

Complicating matters, Eland noted, is a potential referendum on U.S. troops that could occur this year. If Iraqis vote to rid their nation of its occupiers earlier than the current 2011 deadline, the 96th would have to speed up its efforts to move U.S. forces out of Iraq -- all without compromising the safety of tens of thousands of troops still there.

Col. C.J. Read, who leads the 96th, says his soldiers are ready for the challenge, but hopeful that the Iraq they find later this year returns to a state of relative peace.

"Hopefully things will go well and we'll be on the tail end of the closing down of things over there," he said.

But anytime a commander leads a unit to war, Read said, there is no "best case" scenario until everyone is home.

"There are still threats over there," he said. "Anyone who is on the road -- and for us, as a logistical company, we'll be on the road every night -- will still face many risks."

"As a commander, my goal is to take them there, do the mission and bring them back whole to their families."

To that end, Read knows, there's plenty he can control. And plenty more he can't.

mlaplante@sltrib.com