So far, Salt Lake County has managed to keep its finances afloat -- tossing overboard millions in spending and more than 120 jobs to build its 2009 budget.

But how watertight is that county ark, especially when the rain keeps falling?

The County Council is expected to approve a slimmed-down 2009 spending plan Tuesday, only to face a 2010 budget so strapped for cash that financial analysts warn that the county, without more money, could nearly drain its general-fund reserve. That rainy-day fund for basic government operations could drop to $1.6 million by then, according to the latest financial forecasts. That's far short of the 10 percent minimum (in this case, $23 million) that policy requires the county retain its coveted triple A bond rating.

Bottom line: "It will be very challenging for policymakers to come up with a balanced budget," Budget Director Lance Brown said Friday. "It is just a simple mathematical fact."

But will the county really exhaust its reserves? Probably not, Brown concedes. But county leaders will have to think hard about how to avoid it without resorting to the alternative -- higher taxes.

The mayor's chief financial officer, Darrin Casper, insists that his boss, Democrat Peter Corroon, won't allow a multimillion-dollar shortfall to materialize.

"We're not going to do it," he said. "The budget will be structurally balanced. The question is how."

At this point, Corroon doesn't plan to raise taxes. Instead, his long-range budget includes millions more in reduced spending and a one-time infusion of $7 million from the landfill's reserve account into the general fund. If successful, the mayor could end 2010 about $125,000 ahead with $22 million in reserves, according to fiscal projections included in the mayor's budget.

But, given the bleak economy, the county's financial outlook isn't getting any brighter. And the County Council knows it.

"We are going to have to keep on top of this month by month, at the very least," Democratic Councilman Jim Bradley said, "to make sure the revenues, to balance this budget, are coming in."

More trimming already has begun. The council and mayor signed a joint resolution late last month to save $8 million by next spring by eliminating 123 positions from the county work force. They also committed to shave an additional $15 million from the budget through other measures by November.

Even so, Republican Councilman Jeff Allen will recommend next week that the council consider during its midyear budget negotiations in June cutting department spending an additional 10 percent.

"Necessity is the mother of efficiency," he said. "Until we require government to be more efficient, we simply won't become more efficient."

But deeper cuts could mean diminished -- or suspended -- services, warned Democratic colleague Joe Hatch. The council may have to look to other money-savers such as refinancing bonds or tapping the landfill's surplus next year.

"We have cut to the bone," he said.

For now, economic storm clouds linger with no sign of clearing skies. "If this isn't a rainy day," Chief Deputy Auditor Bruce Larsen said, "I don't want to see one."

jstettler@sltrib.com