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Donald Trump has a small lead in a second poll of Utah conducted in the days after a video showed the Republican presidential nominee bragging about groping women.
Trump received 34 percent in the new Monmouth University Poll, followed by Democrat Hillary Clinton at 28 percent and independent Evan McMullin at 20 percent.
That's the second strong showing for McMullin, a conservative born in Provo, who is on the ballot in Utah and 10 other states.
The Monmouth survey comes on the heels of a Y2 Analytics poll released Wednesday that found a statistical tie between those three contenders, with Trump and Clinton at 26 percent and McMullin at 22 percent.
"While this race is close, it is unclear whether Clinton or McMullin has the better opportunity to upset Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, based in New Jersey.
The survey of 403 likely Utah voters took place Monday through Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The video of Trump, showing him preparing for a soap opera cameo, resulted in an exodus of support from Utah's top political leaders. Gov. Gary Herbert and Rep. Jason Chaffetz withdrew their endorsements and said they won't vote for him. While Sen. Mike Lee and Rep. Mia Love, already on the fence, vowed to oppose their party's nominee as well.
Those Republican heavyweights haven't said whom they will vote for now. Murray said that could explain why Trump's support has been volatile.
"It is likely that some Republican voters are looking for cues from their state's party leadership, who have pretty much abandoned Trump en masse," he said.
Not everyone has left Trump's camp. Utah Republican Party Chairman James Evans, Sen. Orrin Hatch, Rep. Rob Bishop and state House Speaker Greg Hughes, R-Draper, have all stuck behind the GOP nominee since the video emerged.
Still, the two polls show that upset Republicans and a hefty chunk of independents appear to be coalescing around McMullin rather than Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. The Y2 Analytics poll had Johnson at 14 percent. The Monmouth poll pegs him at 9 percent.
McMullin held a town hall Wednesday in Logan, where hundreds attended. He planned another event in Syracuse on Thursday evening, a sign of how much attention he's placing in the state in hopes of capturing at least some electoral votes.
The Monmouth poll found that Republicans were still picking Trump over McMullin 55 percent to 26 percent, while independents were split among the four candidates — 29 percent for Trump, 23 percent for Clinton, 21 percent for McMullin and 16 percent favor Johnson.
There was also a stark gender split.
Male voters are far more likely to back the Republican nominee — 42 percent for Trump, 26 percent for Clinton, 14 percent for McMullin and 10 percent for Johnson.
Women slightly favor the Democrat — 31 percent for Clinton, 27 percent for Trump, 26 percent for McMullin and 8 percent for Johnson.
Unlike the Y2 poll that showed Mormons favoring McMullin, a Latter-day Saint, over Trump, 33 percent to 28 percent, the Monmouth survey said Mormon voters favor Trump over McMullin, 38 percent to 32 percent. The LDS vote in Utah will play a big role in who locks up the state's six Electoral College votes. Even Clinton is courting LDS voters, with a Mormons for Hillary group holding a phone banking event Thursday evening.
The Monmouth poll found that 87 percent of LDS respondents said that Clinton doesn't share their values and 73 percent said the same thing about Trump.
The survey also included questions on Utah's races for governor and Senate. These results were far closer to what Republicans expect to see in such a conservative state. Gov. Gary Herbert is leading Democrat Mike Weinholtz, 63 percent to 30 percent, while Sen. Mike Lee is up on Democrat Misty Snow, 60 percent to 31 percent.