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Southern Utah, hydrologists say, is likely about to make the area's four-year drought a thing of the past.

With snowpack in redrock country in the range of 130 percent to 165 percent of normal and more on its way, courtesy of El Nino, water should be in good supply there come spring, according to the latest Utah Water Supply Outlook Report from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS).

"All reservoirs are expected to fill" in southern Utah, said Randy Julander, Utah snow survey supervisor for the NRCS. "Some should fill and spill."

Northern Utah is a different story. Snowpack accumulation in the upper half of the state is roughly average — 107 percent of normal above the Salt Lake City and Provo areas and 104 percent above Ogden, as of Feb. 1. But the area's drought-parched soils are likely to absorb a good part of northern Utah's runoff this spring.

"Average isn't enough to be going around and shouting willy-nilly that the drought is over," Julander said.

As for those marveling at — or complaining about — the size of this winter's storms, Julander said they have short memories. The past four years of shoveling snow once or twice a season isn't normal, he said, and, historically, Utah is capable of accumulating a lot more snow.

"Last year, there was only one storm to shovel," he said. "But that's what sticks in people's minds, so all of a sudden this winter's a brute. People have become accustomed to something [abnormal] very quickly."

The national Climate Prediction Center forecasts more snow than usual for all but the northernmost tip of the state through the end of the season. Consequently, the U.S. Drought Monitor is forecasting the end of drought conditions across much of the state, excepting northwestern Utah, by the end of the season. But Julander said he's putting limited stock in those projections.

"Expectations are one of those signs that haven't happened yet," he said. "We'll count those chickens when we get them."

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