BAGHDAD, Iraq - During the past 30 days, more than 2,300 attacks have been directed against civilians and military targets in Iraq, in a pattern that sprawls over nearly every major population center outside the Kurdish north, according to comprehensive data compiled by a private security company with access to military intelligence reports and its own network of Iraqi informants.

The sweeping geographical reach of the attacks, from Nineveh and Salahuddin provinces in the northwest to Babylon and Diyala in the center and Basra in the south, suggest a more widespread resistance than the isolated pockets of insurgency described by Iraqi government officials.

The number of attacks has risen and fallen over the months. The highest numbers were in April, when there was major fighting in Fallujah, with attacks averaging 120 a day. In contrast, the average is now about 80 a day.

Yet for different analysts, the same numbers could lead to opposite conclusions.

''I have every reason to believe that the Iraqi people are going to be able to hold elections,'' said Lt. Col. William Nichols of the Air Force, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition forces.

Indeed, no raw compilation of statistics on numbers of attacks can measure what is perhaps the most important political equation facing Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and the U.S. military: how much of Iraq is under the firm control of the interim government. That will determine the likelihood - and quality - of elections in January.

For example, the number of attacks is not an accurate measure of control in Fallujah; in fact, attacks have recently dropped there, but the town is controlled by insurgents and is a ''no go'' zone for the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces. It is a place where elections could not be held without dramatic political or military intervention.

The statistics show that there have been just under 1,000 attacks in Baghdad over the past month. But those figures do not necessarily preclude having elections in the Iraqi capital.

Pentagon officials and military officers like to point to a separate list of statistics to counter the tally of attacks, including the number of schools and of clinics opened. They cite statistics indicating a growing number of Iraqi security forces are trained and fully equipped, and they note that applicants continue to line up despite bombings at recruiting stations.

But most of all, military officers argue that despite the rise in bloody attacks over the past 30 days, the insurgents have yet to win a single battle.

''We have had zero tactical losses; we have lost no battles,'' said a senior U.S. military officer.

''We are at a very critical time,'' he added. ''The only way we can lose this battle is if the American people decide we don't want to fight anymore.''