Tom Brady is just two years removed from an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes, but his statistics since are enough to scare even Patriots fans.
Since throwing his last TD on Dec. 29, 2007, Brady has amassed these numbers: 0 touchdowns, 11 pass attempts, 15 missed games, two surgeries, one reconstructed knee and one offensive guru hired away by another team.
All that may frighten fantasy football players into passing on Brady in favor of safer picks like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers, but there are plenty more reasons to take Brady first.
Most importantly, by all accounts Brady has recovered from the torn left knee ligament that dropped him on opening day last year.
There's no way to truly tell until the season starts, but Brady says he feels great and is well within the typical time line of 8 to 12 months for full recovery. The 32-year-old Brady says he doesn't feel at all limited physically and would prefer not to wear the brace, but will because New England's trainers want him to. He threw at the team's first OTA and is expected to be ready for the season-opener against Buffalo on Sept. 14.
Don't just take Brady's word for it, though. Consider the actions of his team. The Patriots traded away backup Matt Cassel in the offseason -- and even did so on the cheap. That left the roster with this collection of backups and their total of seven career NFL passes: Kevin O'Connell, Matt Gutierrez and Brian Hoyer. It's hard to imagine such a move without full confidence that Brady will be back without problems.
When Brady does return, he'll have an even more explosive passing attack than the one that set the league scoring with 589 points in 2007.
Randy Moss (34 touchdowns the past two years) and Wes Welker (223 catches the past two years) return as the primary stat-producers.
The Patriots added veterans Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis to the four-wide set. Those names don't really scare anyone, but they're great options if they're wandering around all alone while coverages focus on Moss and Welker. Galloway's especially dangerous. While at 37 he's a long, long, long way from his featured receiver days, he's certainly still fast enough to make big plays when no defenders are near.
The Patriots also added tight ends Chris Baker and Alex Smith, as well as a couple of linemen.
Perhaps more important for Brady's fantasy value is what the Pats don't have: a reliable running game. They went out and got Fred Taylor, but he's 33 and really looked it last year. It's also very near the time to call Laurence Maroney a bust after he missed 13 games last year. Second-year man BenJarvis Green-Ellis and a handful of other really old guys round out the position.
As for the departure of offensive mastermind Josh McDaniels, who left New England to become Denver's head coach, there's no reason to worry. Coach Bill Belichick is not known as a mad genius for nothing. He will fix it because, well, he always does.
Perhaps the biggest reason fantasy players shouldn't worry about Brady is the least tangible: He's a freak.
Even before he broke the touchdown record his resume was one of unexplainable accomplishment. To go from sixth-round draft pick and backup to two-time Super Bowl MVP with three championships is stunning. (Throw in a supermodel wife and it's ridiculously stunning.)
The other top quarterback choices might indeed be safer fantasy picks, but it's all about risk-reward. They'll surely have good numbers, but Brady seems to have the best shot at absurd numbers.
1. Tom Brady, New England, age 32. 76 yards. Sure, he only threw 11 passes last year before a season-ending injury, but he's also the same guy who threw an NFL-record 50 touchdowns in 2007 and has even more weapons to work with.
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans, 30: 5,069 yards, 34 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, eight 300-yard games, two 400-yard games, 11 multiple-TD games, 1 dud game (defined as game without a TD or under 200 yards with 1 TD). Hopefully Saints won't figure out they haven't been so good while Brees throws every down.
3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis, 33: 4,002 yards, 28 TDs (1 rushing), 12 INTs, 4 300-yard games, 9 multiple-TD games, 3 duds. He's a little older, but things probably won't change all that much without Marvin Harrison and with the offensive brain trust sporting slightly different titles.
4. Philip Rivers, San Diego, 27: 4,009 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 5 300-yard games, 12 multiple-TD games, 4 duds. May be team's biggest threat now that LaDainian Tomlinson's starting to sputter. Or maybe he just hands off to two guys all the time.
5. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, 25: 4,038 yards, 32 TDs (4 rushing), 13 INTs, 4 300-yard games, 10 multiple-TD games, 4 duds. Amid the usual preseason Brett Favre talk, Rodgers returns to powerful offense that's basically unchanged from his breakout year.
6. Tony Romo, Dallas, 29: 3,448 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 6 300-yard games, 8 multiple-TD games, 4 duds (including 3 games missed to injury). Says he's really getting serious about football. Plus, offense is supposed to be more "Romo-friendly" without all Terrell Owens' touchdowns.
7. Kurt Warner, Arizona, 38: 4,583 yards, 30 TDs, 14 INTs, 6 300-yard games, 1 400-yard game, 10 multiple-TD games, 2 duds. He's thrown 57 touchdown passes the past two years, but it's always scary drafting an injury-prone 38-year-old who just lost his offensive coordinator.
8. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia, 32: 3,916 yards, 25 TDs (2 rushing), 11 INTs, 3 300-yard games, 7 multiple-TD games, 6 duds. He's often an injury concern but put in 16 games last year for the first time since 2003.
9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta, 24: 3,440 yards, 17 TDs (1 rushing), 11 INTs, 2 300-yard games, 5 multiple-TD games, 9 duds. Maybe arrival of Tony Gonzalez will convince team that running isn't necessary on every first down.
10. Matt Cassel, Kansas City, 27: 3,693 yards, 23 TDs (2 rushing), 11 INTs, 1 300-yard game, 2 400-yard games, 5 multiple-TD games, 8 duds. Without Randy Moss (or even Tony Gonzalez) may be more Tyler Thigpen than Tom Brady. Worth a shot, though.
