This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2017, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
When Orrin Hatch was just a young lawyer from Pittsburgh, he knocked out Democratic Sen. Frank Moss using his clever quip, "What do you call a senator who has served in office for 18 years? You call him home."
Now, seven terms later, Hatch passed a significant milestone earlier this year, becoming the longest-serving Republican senator in history. But that comes at a time when voters appear to have grown weary of the man who is third in line for the presidency, and they're eager for new blood.
In late January, The Salt Lake Tribune reported the results of its poll with the Hinckley Institute of Politics that found that 78 percent thought Hatch should retire, and in a hypothetical head-to-head with former Gov. Jon Huntsman, Hatch would get crushed by 41 percentage points.
Although Huntsman has accepted an offer to be President Donald Trump's ambassador to Russia, a formal nomination has yet to take place, and a newly released poll by Utah Policy says a shade under two-thirds of Utah voters still want Huntsman to run for the Senate in 2018.
So Hatch is done, right?
Well, you might want to ask the Atlanta Falcons what can happen to big leads.
If Hatch runs again — and all signs point in that direction, including his interview Monday with KUTV-Channel 2 — he won't be easy to beat and there are good reasons that Huntsman may not be the guy to do it.
First, the disclaimer: As you probably know, The Tribune is now owned by Paul Huntsman, Jon's brother. I assure you, this is my own opinion, and I suspect the Huntsmans won't be crazy about it.
Now, here's why Jon Huntsman would have his work cut out for him:
1. Republicans pick
Yes, Huntsman is well-liked in Utah, but he actually is viewed more favorably by Democrats than Republicans and, as has been the truth in this state for at least 20 years, statewide offices are decided in the Republican primary.
Among those Republican voters, 62 percent said Huntsman should run, compared with 68 percent of independents and 75 percent of Democrats, according to the new Dan Jones & Associates poll.
But Hatch has been in this position before. In spring 2010, polling said that 71 percent of Utahns wanted Hatch to go and that he trailed in a head-to-head against a generic Republican.
He went on to clear the field and demolish his opponent in 2012.
Polls this far out can be fickle, and Republicans who decide Republican primaries have been shown to stick with what they know. They know Hatch and …
2. Huntsman's record still won't sit well with Utah Republicans
Huntsman will have some explaining to do to calm jittery Republicans. Remember the uproar he caused when, as governor, he spoke in favor of LGBT civil unions? In 2013, he went a step further, supporting full marriage equality. "There is nothing conservative about denying other Americans the ability to forge that same relationship with the person they love," he wrote.
He's right, but Utah Republicans still disagree. The most recent poll on the issue done for Utah Policy last summer showed 72 percent of Republicans still oppose gay marriage, a figure that is declining but still striking.
Add to that the fact that Huntsman left office to work for President Barack Obama, who, according to a January Tribune-Hinckley poll, is viewed unfavorably by 84 percent of Utah Republicans. It won't sit well.
And they'll hear plenty about it because …
3. Hatch is a money machine
You cannot outraise or outspend Hatch. Look at his last election, when he churned through roughly $11 million, a staggering amount for a Utah campaign.
And that was before he was even chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, a role that will have all sorts of banks and business interests lining up to give, especially if Trump is serious about rewriting the tax code.
Hatch is sitting on $2.7 million already and could rake in upward of $15 million without breaking a sweat.
And 2018 will cost less. Instead of spending $6 million to stack the convention with friendly delegates, Hatch can spend a fraction of that and gather the signatures to get on the ballot.
By contrast, Huntsman has been a lackluster fundraiser. He largely funded his first gubernatorial campaign and, when he ran for president in 2012, kicked in more than $5 million of his own money, while his dad spent $2.2 million. If Huntsman goes against Hatch, the family will once again have to reach deep into its own pockets.
And that's in part because …
4. It's good to have friends in high places
He's not exactly a superstar in Utah, but Trump is still the president and Team Trump is pushing Hatch hard to run again. A presidential campaign visit would help solidify Hatch's case that his seniority and clout in Washington are important to Utah.
And if Trump isn't enough, Mitt Romney, who supported Hatch in 2012, would likely again have his back, especially against Huntsman.
(Hatch recently said Romney would be a good successor, and he might step aside if he ran. Romney hasn't commented publicly and Hatch on Monday was back sounding just short of definitive that he will seek re-election and assuring that Romney will not run.)
Hatch has also locked up a slate of local business leaders — like Zions Bank President Scott Anderson and Jazz owner Gail Miller — who are backing his return. That dries up a lot of local campaign money and support.
One other element to consider is that, when Hatch won re-election in 2012, he was battered harder by outside conservative groups like Club for Growth than he was by his opponents.
With a moderate like Huntsman in the race, those groups would likely stay out of Utah in 2018.
That doesn't mean the race wouldn't go negative …
5. The Mormon Whisper campaign
When he ran for president, questions arose about Huntsman's faith. Whether you think it's a legitimate issue or not, it will be an issue. Hatch's people are the masters of the whisper campaign, and Huntsman as the Jack Mormon will be pushed out again and again.
So if Huntsman did get into the race, he would still be running uphill and had better be braced for a bruising fight.
Twitter: @RobertGehrke