The president can declassify what he wants, when he wants, but these disclosures could lead to a "ripple effect," one former senior administration official told FP during a phone interview. There's a danger foreign partners, beyond the government that shared the sensitive source, will "turn inward, and reduce or limit sharing even on issues outside the counterterrorism realm," the former official said.
Trump undercut his own staff on Tuesday with a pair of tweets confirming he revealed intelligence to the Russians — the morning after his top White House lieutenants vehemently denied the report, first published in the Washington Post.
National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster told reporters that no "sources and methods" were revealed during the conversation Monday night. On Tuesday, he repeatedly told reporters Trump's conversation was "wholly appropriate," going so far as to say that what Trump told the Russians wasn't anything more than you could get from open source intelligence, on the internet and through press reports. "I was in the room. . ..and none of us felt in any way that conversation was inappropriate," he said.
However, the Washington Post article did claim that President Trump revealed the name of the city where the partner nation got the information about the aviation threat. The U.S. and the EU will be discussing plans to implement a "laptop ban" on transatlantic flights, a response to threat information derived from intelligence overseas.
The bombshell revelations could damage key U.S. intelligence relationships with its allies around the world. Foreign partners are watching the wheels fall off the cart, thinking "too many things are out of control, so I might hold back," a former senior intelligence official told FP.
One senior European intelligence official told the Associated Press his country may curb its intelligence sharing with Washington for fear of what Trump could reveal to Russian officials. Trump "could be a risk for our sources," the official said, speaking anonymously and on condition his country would not be identified.
While White House officials have emphasized that Trump did not disclose sources and methods and only described the intelligence he had received, the former intelligence official said that may be a distinction without a difference. Some intelligence is so sensitive that it will be obvious to intelligence professionals how it was obtained, the former official said.
The intelligence Trump shared came from Israel, the New York Times reported. Separately, the White House announced Trump had a phone call with King Abdullah II of Jordan Tuesday morning after the news broke, fueling speculation that Trump's disclosures came from Jordan, which has a robust intelligence footprint in Syria.
Several former administration and intelligence officials interviewed by FP, though without direct knowledge of the information Trump shared, speculated that the foreign partner is likely a Middle Eastern ally-potentially Jordan or Israel. One former official who worked for several intelligence agencies told FP that the source of the information "will be concerned about exposure of sources and methods ultimately to Iran," because of Tehran's relationship with Moscow.
Though officials think it's unlikely the information came from one of the so-called "Five Eyes" nations, the intelligence-sharing group made up of the United States, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, officials from those countries are likely to be concerned about the president's decision to share the information with Russian officials.
Trump's disclosures are "certainly," a risk to U.S.-U.K intelligence sharing, one of the closest bonds in espionage, says Matt Tait, a former analyst from GCHQ, Britain's equivalent of the NSA. "Lots of information is shared on the understanding that the U.S. will be able to keep it safe," Taid said. "To have a president show that he does not care about that arrangement makes countries think twice before sharing it."
GCHQ declined a request for comment.
While Democrats fumed at the revelations, exasperated Republicans in Congress worried Trump's repeated scandals and gaffes could scupper their legislative agenda.
"They are in a downward spiral right now and have got to figure out a way to come to grips with all that's happening," said Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "The chaos that is being created by the lack of discipline is creating an environment that I think. . .creates a worrisome environment."
"Can we have a crisis-free day?" said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. "That's all I'm asking."
Key lawmakers were, yet again, in the dark before the bombshell. An aide for the Senate Intelligence Committee told FP that no one briefed the committee about Trump's conversations. They learned about it from The Washington Post.