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A gauge of expected price swings in Treasuries fell to the lowest since December 2014 before the Federal Reserve meets next week as traders see a clearer outlook for monetary policy in the U.S. and abroad.
The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate declined for a sixth day after the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan last week signaled no urgent need to reduce asset-purchase programs.
Futures data show traders see only about a 17 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates at its Nov. 2 meeting, even as the probability of a hike by year-end has climbed to 74 percent.
"No one's expecting anything from the Fed's meeting next week," said Justin Lederer, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Cantor Fitzgerald, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. "People are looking for a December rate hike. Even with the presidential election, people are comfortable with rates."
Treasuries have lost about 0.8 percent this month, according to Bloomberg index data, as Fed officials have indicated the case for tightening has strengthened. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on Monday said it may be appropriate to raise rates three times by the end of 2017. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said December is "most likely" for a hike, even as he indicated low productivity and investor demand for safe assets will keep U.S. rates suppressed for several years.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield was little changed at 1.76 percent as of 1:59 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.5 percent security due in August 2026 rose 1/32, or $0.31 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 21/32.
Another gauge of price swings, the CBOE/CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note Volatility Index, last week touched its lowest level since 2013.
Treasuries fluctuated Tuesday after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence declined more than forecast in October. Government data on Oct. 28 will show U.S. GDP grew at a 2.5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, according to the average forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
A gauge of demand fell to the lowest since July and the second-lowest since 2008 at a $26 billion two-year U.S. note auction Tuesday. The U.S. will sell $34 billion in five-year notes Wednesday and $28 billion in seven-year securities on Oct. 27.
"Trading is going to be all about supply this week," said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy in New York at Societe Generale, a primary dealer. "The next big data point is the GDP print. We're looking at another potentially weak quarter and that doesn't qualify us for any urgency in raising rates."