This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

The last time BYU started a football season 1-4, somebody got fired the next day.

Nothing quite that dramatic will occur this weekend if the Cougars lose to Toledo. Even so, BYU will have a math problem if the Rockets win Friday night in Provo.

BYU salvaged the 2010 season with a 6-6 record (plus a New Mexico Bowl win over Texas-El Paso) after falling to 1-4 with a Friday night loss at Utah State. The recovery came after coach Bronco Mendenhall fired defensive coordinator Jaime Hill and started with a win over San Diego State in a game that involved a controversial video replay. The Cougars then were blasted at TCU before winning four Mountain West games in a row and losing 17-16 at Utah when a field-goal try was blocked.

The road to 6-6 and bowl eligibility would become far more difficult this year if the Cougars are 1-4. My published game-by-game projections had them 1-3 at this stage, then beating Toledo, losing to Michigan State, Mississippi State and Boise State and winning all four November games to 6-6.

That allows for the balancing a loss to Toledo with an upset in October, but those will be three challenging games. So will a November trip to Cincinnati, which I've counted as a win.

Friday's game clearly is pivotal in coach Kalani Sitake's first season, and a victory won't come easily. The hidden element of BYU's schedule of playing six Power 5 schools in September and October is that the two Group of 5 opponents — Toledo and Boise State — are strong programs, with high-scoring offenses.

The difference between 2016 and 2010 or 2005 (Mendenhall's first year) is that a soft section of the Mountain West schedule awaited the Cougars in those previous years. BYU does get a break in November with Southern Utah and Massachusetts — although UMass was competitive last week against Mississippi State — but that's not much consolation at this point.

Like Sitake, Mendenhall started his career 1-3 and needed a fourth-quarter rally from 11 points behind to win 27-24 at New Mexico in '05, thanks to quarterback John Beck. The Cougars finished 6-5 in the regular season, then lost to California in the Las Vegas Bowl.

It's amazing how much BYU's perspective of the 2016 season could change with a win Friday. The Cougars would regain some confidence and appear capable of knocking off one of the October opponents. But if they lose to Toledo, it might be a long time before they beat anybody.

Twitter: @tribkurt