This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
Years ago, I was sitting in the non-smoking room of an off-track betting facility in Evanston, Wyo., watching some horse races with a few friends, including Kevin.
It was an unremarkable day, except for our inability to pick winners and cash tickets.
Nearly out of money, I was considering a quick run to the local First Interstate Bank cash machine. Kevin was approaching Ground Zero, too. But, as post time for a late-in-the-day race approached, I saw him hurriedly make a wager.
Initially, I didn't pay close attention to the TV monitor showing the race. But when the field hit the top of the stretch, an improbable 20-to-1 outsider had charged into the lead. When I looked up, Kevin glanced over and said, "I've got that one."
The long shot won. His victory brought a smile to Kevin's face, provided temporary relief to his personal financial crisis and raised a question from me.
I wondered why he decided to bet a few bucks from his dwindling bankroll on a horse that appeared to have so little chance.
Kevin, one of the most astute horse guys I know, laughed.
"If you're going down," he said, "you might as well go down in flames."
I remembered the long-ago trip to the off-track this week while spending way too much time reviewing video and past performances during my annual attempt to handicap the Kentucky Derby.
As I sorted through the 20 horses — eliminating some and becoming intrigued by others — I came to one obvious conclusion.
Nyquist is the deserving favorite and most logical pick to win the Derby. The colt is 7 for 7 in his career, including a 31/2-length win in the recent Florida Derby. His tactical speed — he has won on the lead and coming from far behind — is a huge advantage in a 20-horse field.
But me?
I'm rolling the dice on Lani, a 30-to-1 outsider in the morning line whose post-time odds, I suspect, will be even higher.
Hey, if you're going down, you might as well go down in flames.
Lani is being dismissed by nearly everyone because he is based in Japan and comes off a win in the UAE Derby. No horse has ever won in Dubai and, in his next start, come close to winning the Kentucky Derby.
It's a good thing Lani doesn't know this.
Other than his mailing address and long journey taken to reach Churchill Downs, however, there are things to like about a horse whose bloodlines include champions Sunday Silence and A.P. Indy.
Lani is bred to run all day, unlike many rivals in the Derby. Navigating the grueling 11/4 miles should not be a problem. In fact, his first career start was at a mile and a quarter — a distance most thoroughbreds never attempt in their lives.
Lani's career record?
It's not perfect, like Nyquist's is, but look closer. He's raced on dry dirt tracks twice in six starts. He won impressively both times. And a fast track is expected for the Kentucky Derby.
In the UAE Derby, Lani's performance was eye-catching, if not particularly fast. He stumbled badly at the start and dropped back to last in a seven-horse field. A four-wide move down the backstretch and through turn put him in front. In the final sixteenth of a mile, he easily held off an undefeated three-year-old filly named Polar River.
Another horse in the UAE Derby was Frank Conversation, who won the Grade III El Camino Real Derby in February. Lani ran by him and onto my Kentucky Derby radar screen.
By the way, Kevin likes Brody's Cause.
Twitter: @sluhm —
Handicapping the 2016 Kentucky Derby
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Comment Line
8. Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga Loved his effort in the UAE Derby 30-1
13. Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill Tactical speed a huge advantage 3-1
19. Brody's Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans Should be charging in the stretch 12-1
17. Mor Spirit Gary Stevens Bob Baffert Struggled in Santa Anita Derby slop 12-1
4. Mo Tom Corey Lanerie Tom Amoss Tendency to find traffic trouble 20-1
18. Majesto Emisael Jaramillo Gustavo Delgado Chased Nyquist in Florida at 21-1 30-1
20. Danzing Candy Mike Smith Cliff Sise Jr. Dangerous with an easy early lead 15-1
6. My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr. Chad Brown Impressive second in the Blue Grass 20-1
9. Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher Would not be a complete surprise 15-1
11. Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux Hasn't come close against Nyquist 8-1
5. Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen Enjoyed a perfect trip in La. Derby 10-1
2. Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez Donnie Von Hemel Deep closer needs a fast pace 20-1
14. Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin Not sure he handles this distance 10-1
3. Creator Ricardo Santana Jr. Steve Asmussen Rapid fractions in Arkansas Derby 10-1
16. Shagaf Joel Rosario Chad Brown Flopped as Wood Memorial favorite 20-1
10. Whitmore Victor Espinoza Ron Moquett Still looking for first stakes victory 20-1
15. Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Likely to be an important pace factor 15-1
12. Tom's Ready Brian Hernandez Jr. Dallas Stewart Has won only once in eight starts 30-1
7. Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux Mike Maker Wins have been on the slow side 50-1
1. Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Paddy Gallagher Wood Memorial runner-up at 81-1 50-1