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The nasty sludge is probably here.
But Utah Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) scientists will continue to test the water in the San Juan River south of Bluff every three hours, hoping to pin down when the first remnants of a 3-million-gallon deluge of mine waste ooze across Utah's state line.
The results of the first samples — taken Sunday — likely won't be available until late Tuesday.
Dave Ariotti, southeastern Utah district engineer for DEQ, said it's possible the plume crossed the state line as early as 9 p.m. Sunday. But it's become difficult to track the plume's movement.
Last week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was able to track the mass of gunk downstream because it was brightly colored and visible from overhead aircraft.
But over the weekend, heavy rains diluted the yellow-orange sludge and stirred up the river, making the plume impossible to identify visually.
Ariotti said water quality monitors first took samples from the river at 9 p.m. Sunday, and continue to take samples — which are being sent directly to a lab in Salt Lake City for rush processing — to determine what kind of contaminants may have entered the state, and where along the San Juan they're located.
Until the results come back, DEQ spokeswoman Donna Spangler said, the only indication of the plume's presence is the river's increased pH, which measured an 8 on Monday. That measurement is slightly elevated, she said, but not outside normal ranges of 6-9.
Samples taken upriver by the EPA show the plume registered a pH of 4.5 — roughly equivalent to the acidity of a soda — at the spill's most concentrated point near the mine.
Spangler said DEQ plans to continue to take water samples through Wednesday, and then will determine a more solid plan of action based on the results of those samples.
"Right at the moment, we aren't seeing any real impact," she said. "But we won't really know that until we have a better understanding of what we're dealing with."
Meantime, the Bureau of Land Management and the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area have issued advisories warning visitors to avoid the San Juan River and the San Juan River arm of Lake Powell.
The advisories do not apply to the entire lake at this time.
The situation is the same across much of the west. Though the EPA has set up remote command and information centers in Durango, Colo., Farmington, N.M., and Shiprock, N.M., there is little new information pending further sampling and analysis.
Over the weekend, the EPA determined that the initial spill from the Gold King Mine on Wednesday actually contained about 3 million gallons of contaminated mine waste water — not 1 million as originally reported.
Those figures were based on data from flow gauges placed on the mine site, which continues to leak contaminated water, according to an Aug. 9 news release.
The EPA also has begun to post preliminary water quality data on its website, but officials declined during a Monday press call to draw any conclusions about the potential health risks associated with the spill, or about the long-term consequences for the river environment.
There have been no reports of any immediate negative effects for wildlife, EPA managers told reporters.
Segments of the Animas and San Juan rivers in Colorado and New Mexico remain closed as a precautionary measure. Those closures are expected to stay in place until at least Aug. 17.
The closures affect public drinking water systems in Colorado and New Mexico, but none in Utah.
"At this point, there is no clear indication of immediate harm," Gov. Gary Herbert said in a statement released Monday. "Although some areas are taking precautions, no Utah drinking water systems have been impacted at this time."