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Where will the state build a new prison? Salt Lake City Councilman James Rogers believes he knows the answer.

He expects the state's Prison Relocation Commission to pick the site west of the Salt Lake City International Airport at its meeting Tuesday.

In reaction, he believes the city will file an environmental lawsuit, but he doesn't expect that to hold up and, in the end, the state will construct a 4,000-bed prison in his district.

"It's a done deal," said a dejected Rogers. "You've got to say you can fight it, but there is absolutely nothing we can do."

The Legislature has explored moving the prison from Draper for more than three years and is now on the verge of a major step forward.

The relocation commission's seven voting members, all state lawmakers, are expected to make their recommendation Tuesday, picking from four options. Other than the airport site, they are considering land in Eagle Mountain, Fairfield and Grantsville.

No commission member has publicly announced his or her position and commission co-chairman Rep. Brad Wilson, R-Kaysville, said Monday: "Once I see the final data, I will finalize my decision."

While Rogers has no inside knowledge of the commission's thinking, he argues that the panel and its outside consultants always have favored the Salt Lake City site.

"From the first meeting to the last meeting," Rogers said, "it has always been about justifying why it would work in Salt Lake City."

Those consultants, along with employees of the state Legislature and the Department of Corrections, met Monday with environmental activists associated with the Great Salt Lake Alliance. During the 90-minute meeting, consultant Bob Nardi stressed that a decision hadn't been made, though he wanted to gather the concerns of environmentalists on issues ranging from migratory birds to surface water flows.

He organized the meeting through Ella Sorenson, the manager of the Gillmor Audubon Sanctuary, which owns 3,000 acres bordering the land that may house the prison.

She said Audubon and other groups would rather the prison go elsewhere, but they know development along Salt Lake's Northwest Quadrant is inevitable.

"We don't want anything there, but we know something is coming," she said. "[The prison] seems to be the best possible option."

She said the prison consultants promised short buildings with few windows and no barbed wire. She also suggested the state may buy extra land to make a buffer between the prison and the bird sanctuary.

Sorenson and Maunsel Pearce, the chairman of the Great Salt Lake Alliance, said the consultants are focused on two pieces of land owned by Rio Tinto, the parent company of Kennecott Copper, and a California family that owns a winery. There's a site to the east close to where the gun clubs access areas to hunt ducks and another to the west, closer to the Audubon land. Sorenson said it appears Nardi favored the west site.

Nardi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At the most recent commission meeting, consultants suggested the environmental issues are not roadblocks to a deal. But they could result in a delay.

Rogers said Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker and the city have done everything possible to block the prison relocation, "except for litigation, and that is probably on the horizon."

Becker said last week he knows the city is a top contender to land the prison. He said he would keep all options open, including a lawsuit, to combat it.

Rogers sees this as a delaying tactic, believing that an environmental lawsuit would eventually crumble. The Great Salt Lake Alliance may not support a lawsuit as long as the city and state agree to create a conservation easement on sensitive wetlands.

Nardi has argued that putting a prison at the Salt Lake City site would spur economic development faster than at the other locations, because it is already near industrial parks — exactly what the environmentalists fear.

Rogers, who wants to see development in the area, doesn't buy that argument, saying a prison would stunt growth in the Northwest Quadrant. The best he can hope for is the state paying to upgrade sewer, water and electrical lines. Maybe, he added, the state will clean up a nearby landfill.

Legislators who represent that area, Sen. Luz Escamilla and Rep. Sandra Hollins, both Democrats, say they are holding out hope that the commission will pick another spot. But said if the recommendation is Salt Lake City, they'll continue to fight it.

"I will be speaking against moving it to Salt Lake City, for sure," Escamilla said.

The full Legislature must vote on the commission's recommendation. Gov. Gary Herbert has to sign off as well. Herbert is expected to call a special legislative session in the coming weeks.

A Salt Lake City government-commissioned poll in June found three-fourths of respondents opposed moving the prison into the city, and 52 percent wanted to keep the prison in Draper. A poll for The Salt Lake Tribune last month found two-thirds of Salt Lake City voters opposed moving the prison. None of the cities under consideration wants to host the prison.

If the commission is looking for an alternative to Salt Lake City, it's likely Eagle Mountain, according to state GOP Rep. David Lifferth, who represents that fast-growing city in northern Utah County.

"If they have a short-term mentality, they'll probably pick Eagle Mountain, but if they have a long-term outlook, it'll be by the airport," Lifferth said. "I sure hope it is the site by the airport."

Consultants have shown the Eagle Mountain site is probably the cheapest place to build the prison, while the Salt Lake City site would be the most expensive, largely because the land near the Great Salt Lake is soft and would need extra foundational support.

That said, the Salt Lake City site would likely be the cheapest prison to operate because the city has a built-out water system and is far closer to the courts and University of Utah Hospital, meaning less spent on transporting inmates.

The Fairfield land is the farthest away from the courts and hospital and may be on an archaeological site. The Grantsville site is the farthest away from the current prison workforce, and is on a hill, which would require roughly $30 million to flatten.

Commission members may explain their votes with those technical reasons, but Rogers believes there is another motivation to pick the state's capital — Salt Lake is run by and represented in the Legislature by Democrats in a state dominated by Republicans.

"We are the redheaded stepchild," he said. "They are just going to beat up on Salt Lake City no matter what."

Wilson, the commission co-chairman, said the political makeup of each city has nothing to do with the decision at hand. He said the commission will make a decision on what is best for the state now and for the next 50 years.

Twitter: @mattcanham