Even he confesses to be astounded by what Katrina, Rita and the 2005 hurricane season in general have wrought on the Gulf Coast of the United States.

Steadham, who was based in Miami with that city's NBC affiliate for 12 years before returning to his native Utah earlier this year to become KUTV's chief meteorologist, says there has never been a year in which so many tropical storms have morphed into hurricanes. Nor has there been a year in which so many hurricanes have become major hurricanes - Category 3, 4 or 5.

"These aren't just hurricanes. They're devastating monsters. And that's unheard of," he says.

By the time the season comes to a close at the end of November, Katrina will go down as the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, and perhaps one of the deadliest. Rita, a powerful storm in its own right, pales only in comparison to its predecessor and probably just a few other hurricanes in terms of the damage it has done and what it will cost to replace and repair.

But ask Steadham and other hurricane watchers if they are surprised by the seemingly sudden emergence of these powerful storms, and the answer is an emphatic "No."

"These are hurricanes that have plowed a path through thousands and thousands of people and hundreds of communities. So people are naturally going to ask, 'What's going on?' " Steadham says. "Well, what's going on is what has always gone on."

Put simply, the frequency of hurricanes can be measured in what has historically been a series of 30-year cycles. After a relatively quiet period that lasted from roughly 1970 to 1994, we are now in what meteorologists call an active hurricane pattern that, based on precedence, will continue for roughly another two decades.

The thing that makes this particular spurt of storms distinct is the number of people who now live in their paths. A large migration from the Northeast and Midwest to the South began during the last hurricane lull, then accelerated in the 1990s when the Sun Belt's economy heated up. And that migration has continued into the new millennium. Coastal areas that used to be home to a few beach houses now teem with condominiums, hotels, casinos and golf courses. What were once small towns are now bustling cities.

The hurricanes have not noticed the difference.

"The human element of this gets overlooked a lot of the time," says Jim Steenburgh, chair of the meteorology department at the University of Utah. "We're still learning about hurricanes, but we know the human component pretty well. And what we know is that we have put ourselves in a precarious position during the last 30 years. New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen, and it finally happened. Unfortunately, it's not the only example of a disaster that might hit."

"When" might be a more appropriate term.

In an average year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tracks around 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes and two or three turn into major hurricanes. With two months to go in the '05 season, there already have been 17 tropical storms, of which nine became hurricanes and five turned into major hurricanes. In other words, about 60 percent of all the tropical storms have morphed into hurricanes, and 60 percent of those became Katrina-like behemoths.

The NOAA predicted between 18 and 21 tropical storm systems for 2005, which means more hurricane horrors may still lie ahead - though the season typically peaks in September.

But if these numbers become something close to the norm in the next 15 to 20 years, a major reassessment may be in order.

"How will these areas be affected by a continuous series of hurricanes? That's a very good question," says Pamela Perlich, a senior economist at the U.'s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "As long as there is economic opportunity, people will continue to live there. But there are also other factors, like the cost of housing and the cost of insurance. Will the cost of land and insurance become so high that it becomes a drag on development and forces people out? And will there be a fresh crop of people willing to move in?"

Perlich also wonders about the economic disparity of a region where Florida and Texas have thrived, while Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi have struggled. South Florida re-emerged after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 with a new set of zoning and building codes that essentially mandated hurricane-proof buildings. But the poorer parts of the Gulf Coast don't have anything close to the economic resources in Miami and Dade County.

"There will be distinct differences in how these areas will rebuild," she predicts.

Many questions also remain about the environmental issues surrounding this hurricane surge. Some climatologists have argued that global warming has come into play in terms of heating the Atlantic Ocean, which in turn drives changes in the atmosphere that creates tropical storm systems.

But meteorologists say that there is not yet nearly enough data to confirm or even suggest a link with climate change.

"The earth is billions of years old and we have just decades of good hurricane data," says Steenburgh. "We certainly can't attribute any one event to global warming. Climate change is more of statistical phenomena, where what we're seeing now is caused by natural fluctuations, cycles or something else that is yet to be determined. This is a question we are still debating."

KUTV meteorologist Steadham calls the recent Atlantic water temperature increase of 1 to 2 degrees "substantial," but a trend that is in keeping with past active hurricane periods. Higher salinity levels and a huge high pressure system parked over the middle of the Atlantic also have fed the hurricane beast. All of this is not only natural, he suggests, but vital to preserving environmental order on the planet Earth.

"We need hurricanes," Steadham says. "They move the heat from the southern latitudes to the northern latitudes. It's nature's way of achieving balance in the atmosphere. Without hurricanes, we'd be shoveling snow in Miami."

jbaird@sltrib.com

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The Tribune has a news-sharing partnership with KUTV Channel 2.