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The 30th season of "Survivor" wraps up tonight (7 p.m., CBS/Ch. 2), and Utahn Sierra Dawn Thomas is one of five castaways still in the running to win the million bucks.
First, however, she has to make it through two immunity challenges and two tribal councils to make it to the final three. Then she'll have to convince a plurality of the nine-member jury (made up of eliminated contestants) to vote to give her the money.
Oh, and her father makes an appearance.
I hope Thomas succeeds. I enjoyed our interview before this season of "Survivor" began airing, and I've been rooting for her.
(Yes, I'm still a fan of "Survivor." And the show — while not the massive hit it was 15 years ago — is still a ratings success, winning its time slot not just among viewers and households but among the advertiser-friendly demographics of 18-49 and 25-54.)
A week ago, I wrote that I could see no way that Thomas could win. Because she hasn't made a major move in the game, which tends to work against contestants when it comes to that final vote.
I've changed my mind, however. I can see a path to victory for Thomas.
(This is not a spoiler. Even if I knew what is going to happen — and I don't — I wouldn't spoil it.)
If Thomas makes it to the final three, her chances of winning depend on who the other two finalists are. If it's Thomas, Rodney Lavoie Jr. and Will Sims II, she stands a very good chance of taking home $1 million — because Rodney and Will seem to be so disliked by the members of the jury.
If Carolyn Rivera joins Thomas in the final three, that makes it much tougher. Not that Carolyn is popular with members of the jury, but she can argue that she has played the game while Thomas largely went along with members of her alliance.
If Mike Holloway makes it to the final three, there will be little suspense. It would be a massive surprise if Mike DOESN'T win.
The biggest reason I have doubts about whether Thomas will win is that we've seen so little of her this season. She hasn't figured promimently in the episodes, and I cannot recall any contestant with so little screen time winning the million dollars.