Maybe Ennis Del Mar, the taciturn ranchhand played by Heath Ledger in the movie, put it most succinctly: "Ain't no reins on this one. Just got to ride it."

Observant moviegoers have had "Brokeback Mountain" on their radar since it won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival last September. Their interest grew even stronger through year's end, as the movie about two gay cowboys (er, sheepherders) picked up critics' awards across the country, including the Utah Film Critics Association prize.

But lots of movies have received year-end acclaim - and even won the Oscar for Best Picture - without lodging themselves into the public consciousness the way "Brokeback Mountain" has.

"Brokeback Mountain" has become a punchline for late-night comics (a recent Letterman bit: "Top Ten Signs You're a Gay Cowboy") and an easily recognized and parodied poster image (the current issue of The New Yorker has a cover illustration of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney in the "Brokeback" pose). "I wish I knew how to quit you" has become the hottest catchphrase since "Show me the money!"

All this for a movie relatively few people across the country have seen. As of this weekend, "Brokeback Mountain" has made only $75 million at the box office - though industry experts expect it to reach the crucial $100 million mark, buoyed in part by its expected success at Sunday's Oscars. That's far short of the blockbuster numbers some Best Pictures have earned, such as "Titanic's" $600 million or the $377 million raked in by "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."

But the buzz is so strong for "Brokeback Mountain," a Best Picture win on Sunday is not merely predictable but has the makings of a Hollywood social statement. It doesn't happen often - you have to look back in Oscar history to Steven Spielberg's "Schindler's List" in 1993 or Oliver Stone's "Platoon" in 1986 - but the support for "Brokeback Mountain" feels like more than acknowledgment of a fine film. It feels like a cause.

So why "Brokeback Mountain"? And why now?

Part of the movie's impact is that it's damn good. But part of it can be cast in terms of America's so-called "culture wars," part of the national argument over same-sex marriage.

Gay-rights advocates point to "Brokeback Mountain" as an example of a gay relationship that doesn't fit Hollywood's limp-wristed stereotypes, and as proof that anyone, anywhere, from any walk of life, might be gay.

Conservatives say showing two hot stars, like Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal, in a passionate male-male embrace is part of liberal Hollywood's effort to "mainstream" homosexuality. And, to make matters worse for right-wing sensibilities, it uses the all-American icon of the cowboy to do it.

Between the political extremes, the movie has inspired conversation. Larry David, the comic writer-actor, wrote a New York Times op-ed piece in which he expressed qualms that enjoying a movie about two gay cowboys might say something about his sexual orientation. The consternation of a straight-male moviegoer deciding to see the movie, or to ask his buddies to go along, has become a prime watercooler topic.

Another measure of the attitude toward "Brokeback Mountain" is the backlash against it. Some Oscar observers have argued that Paul Haggis' interracial drama "Crash" could upset "Brokeback Mountain" on Oscar night, but the reasons to explain that scenario seem a little cynical.

"Crash" will win Best Picture, the argument goes, because conservative Academy voters are uncomfortable with honoring a gay-themed movie, but they don't want to appear bigoted so they'll go for the black/white/Latino/Arab drama instead. (Another argument is that Oscar voters, most of whom live in Los Angeles, will gravitate toward a movie that makes their city look cosmopolitan.) Those arguments, though, feel like half-hearted attempts to inject some drama into an otherwise predictable Oscar Night.

The truth is that "Brokeback Mountain" is an important, relevant film and an exquisitely made one. It's rare when Hollywood can reward both a movie and its message - and Oscar isn't going to miss the chance this year.

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Contact Sean P. Means at movies@sltrib.com or 801-257-8602. Send comments about this article to livingeditor@sltrib.com.

Who's going to win the big awards Sunday night? Here are fearless predictions from The Salt Lake Tribune's movie critic, Sean P. Means.

Best Picture

The nominees: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."

Who will win: "Brokeback Mountain" - Like the cowboys' love, there are some things you can't fight. More than being a great movie, it's an important cultural milestone.

Who should win: "Capote" - "Brokeback" is great, but this subtle look at Truman Capote's tortured journey to write In Cold Blood is a dark meditation on the artist's betrayal of his murderous muse.

Best Actor

The nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Who will win: Hoffman - A much-respected character actor gets the leading role of a lifetime and delivers.

Who should win: Hoffman - The other four would be sure winners in any other year. But Hoffman's portrayal of Capote, going beyond impersonation to find the writer's troubled spirit, was a marvel to watch.

Best Actress

The nominees: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."

Who will win: Witherspoon - She's loved in Hollywood as a romantic-comedy star, and proved her chops in this dramatic role.

Who should win: Witherspoon - She was the heart and soul of "Walk the Line," even more than Phoenix.

See it on TV

The 78th annual Academy Awards, with Jon Stewart as host at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre, will air live Sunday starting at 6 p.m. on KTVX Channel 4.

Oscar blog

For more predictions, go to Sean P. Means' blog, The Movie Cricket, at http://blogs.sltrib.com/movies.

Online poll

Participate in our online Oscar poll, and enter our Oscar predictions contest, at http://www.sltrib.com/oscars.