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High-quality TV shows don't always turn into hits. Awful shows don't always fail.

What network is airing a show, when the show is airing and the public's sometimes inexplicable taste make hit shows.

You can read about the new fall shows in the accompanying story. What follows here are projections for this year's hits and misses:

• Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I love NBC's "This Is Us" pilot — and so does everybody I know who's seen it. I'm rooting for this one. It has a good shot.

• I know critics who like Fox's "Pitch," which I detest. That aside, no series about baseball has ever succeeded. This won't be the first.

• ABC's "Notorious" is terrible. It's definitely a candidate to be the first show canceled this fall.

• NBC's "The Good Place" is very good, and I've seen five episodes. But it might just be too offbeat for the NBC audience.

• ABC's "Designated Survivor" will get off to a strong start in the ratings. But the second half of the pilot didn't live up to the first half — it got downright dopey — so whether this can succeed in the long run is iffy.

• The ABC pilots "American Housewife" and "Speechless" are both very funny. I'd like to see them succeed, but it's iffy.

• The pilot of Fox's "The Exorcist" is just OK. But maybe there's an audience for a horror series on Friday nights.

• CBS' "Kevin Can Wait" is lame, but then so was Kevin James' last sitcom, "King of Queens" — and that ran for nine seasons. "Kevin" could also work.

• On the other hand, CBS' "Man With a Plan" — which is surprisingly similar to "Kevin" — is really bad. If it lasts as long as Matt LeBlanc's last network sitcom ("Joey," 2004-06), that would be a surprise.

• CBS' "The Great Indoors" is just kind of OK, but it has possibilities. And it will benefit from airing after "Big Bang Theory," so it should have time to get better.

• Speaking of time-period hits, it won't hurt the unremarkable "Bull" that it's airing between "NCIS" and "NCIS: New Orleans." But why CBS thinks it's a big selling point that "Bull" is based on Dr. Phil's early career as a trial consultant is a mystery.

• The CW almost never cancels a show before it airs all of the episodes the network has ordered, which is the only good news for "Frequency" and "No Tomorrow."

• I've seen six episodes of "Divorce" and I didn't even smile once at this Sarah Jessica Parker comedy. This looks like another big miss from HBO.

• The pilot of Fox's "Lethal Weapon" was entertaining, but it doesn't seem like viewers are going to be overly eager to see more.

• Fox's "Son of Zorn" is one-note. It's not the next "Simpsons."

• NBC's "Timeless" is OK, but rather unmemorable. That's not the path to success.

• After being bored through the first two episodes of HBO's "Westworld," I found it picked up somewhat in Episodes 3 and 4. But it's my job to watch TV — will casual viewers give it that much time?

Scott D. Pierce covers TV for The Salt Lake Tribune. Email him at spierce@sltrib.com; follow him on Twitter @ScottDPierce.