Predictions: Oscars will make movie history in 2013

By Sean P. Means

The Salt Lake Tribune

Published: February 24, 2013 12:49AM
Updated: February 25, 2014 01:01PM
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FILE - This publicity film image released by DreamWorks and Twentieth Century Fox shows Daniel Day-Lewis portraying Abraham Lincoln in the film "Lincoln." Best-picture prospects for Oscar Nominations on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013, include, "Lincoln," directed by Steven Spielber. (AP Photo/DreamWorks, Twentieth Century Fox, David James, file)

No matter what happens Sunday, this will be an Oscar night for the record books.

Some examples:

• The five nominees for Best Actress includes the category’s oldest nominee ever (“Amour’s” Emmanuelle Riva, who turns 86 today) and the youngest (Quvenzhané Wallis, from “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” who’s 9).

• All five Supporting Actor nominees already have an Oscar (or, in the case of Robert De Niro, two of them), so we will see a rare repeat winner.

• “Silver Linings Playbook” is the first movie in 31 years to be nominated for Best Picture, directing, screenplay (in this case, adapted) and all four acting categories. The last movie to do that: Warren Beatty’s “Reds,” released in 1981.

• Host Seth Macfarlane (who co-wrote the Oscar-nominated song “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from “Ted”) is the first Oscar emcee in 26 years to be nominated for an Academy Award in the same year. The last person to do that: Paul Hogan, who co-hosted the 1987 ceremony while being nominated for co-writing “Crocodile Dundee.”

But the 85th annual Academy Awards could provide plenty more history when the Oscars are handed out in Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre. (The show starts at 6:30 p.m. Mountain time and will be telecast live on ABC, KTVX Channel 4 in Salt Lake City.)

We could see the first three-time Best Actor winner ever, if “Lincoln’s” Daniel Day-Lewis wins, as he’s expected to do. We could see Adele get an Oscar to go with her Grammys — and give a James Bond theme song an Oscar, which has never happened before. If “Argo” wins Best Picture (as is widely predicted), we could see the first movie since 1989’s “Driving Miss Daisy” to win Best Picture without getting a directing nomination.

Here are my fearless predictions in the major categories for Oscar night. (For the technical, craft and specialty categories, find my predictions on The Cricket blog.)

Actor

Nominees • Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”; Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”; Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”; Denzel Washington, “Flight.”

Who will win • Daniel Day-Lewis has been sweeping all the preliminary awards and is a sure thing to win for his portrayal of Honest Abe.

Who should win • The other reason Day-Lewis is sure to win: He’s really, really, really good.

Actress

Nominees • Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”; Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; Naomi Watts, “The Impossible.”

Who will win • Jennifer Lawrence, playing the frustrated widow in the kooky “Silver Linings Playbook,” has been the front-runner most of the awards season. But she’s got some competition from Jessica Chastain as the no-retreat CIA operative in “Zero Dark Thirty” and Emmanuelle Riva as a slowly deteriorating musician in “Amour.” Lawrence probably will hang on to win.

Who should win • The rap against child performances is that they are manipulated by the director and editor. But Quvenzhané Wallis’ portrayal of an inquisitive Louisiana Delta girl in “Beasts of the Southern Wild” is too beautiful, too pure, to be anyone’s accomplishment but hers.

Supporting Actor

Nominees • Alan Arkin, “Argo”; Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”; Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”; Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained.”

Who will win • All five of these actors have an Oscar at home, while De Niro has two. It’s been shaping up into a two-man race between De Niro as the neurotic dad in “Silver Linings Playbook” and Jones as the irascible anti-slavery congressman Thaddeus Stevens in “Lincoln.” Jones wins, in part because he has more to work with in this role.

Who should win • Waltz’s merrily devilish performance as a bounty hunter in “Django Unchained” is the main reason to sit through Quentin Tarantino’s bloody movie.

Supporting Actress

Nominees • Amy Adams, “The Master”; Sally Field, “Lincoln”; Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”; Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”; Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook.”

Who will win • Anne Hathaway could have started writing her acceptance speech the second she finished singing “I Dreamed a Dream” in one take.

Who should win • Amy Adams provided the depth of drama in “The Master” as the seemingly quiet but secretly steely force behind Philip Seymour Hoffman’s cult leader.

Director

Nominees • Michael Haneke, “Amour”; Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”; David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”; Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”

Who will win • The Academy’s snub of Ben Affleck (“Argo”) and Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”) seemed to grease the skids for Steven Spielberg to take this one for “Lincoln.” (It would be his third win, after “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.”) Spielberg should still win, though don’t be surprised if Ang Lee takes it for the radiant “Life of Pi.”

Who should win • Michael Haneke’s restrained direction kept “Amour” from falling into sentimentality, making its emotional wallop all the more powerful.

Screenplay — Original

Nominees • Michael Haneke, “Amour”; Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”; John Gatin, “Flight”; Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, “Moonrise Kingdom”; Mark Boal, “Zero Dark Thirty.”

Who will win • It’s a toss-up between Michael Haneke’s direct take on dying in “Amour” and Mark Boal’s information-packed portrayal of the CIA’s hunt for Osama bin Laden in “Zero Dark Thirty.” The political fight over “Zero Dark Thirty” may cloud its chances, so “Amour” seems the likely winner.

Who should win • The gentle whimsy of “Moonrise Kingdom” is as original, and as wonderful, as a screenplay could be.

Screenplay — Adapted

Nominees • “Argo,” screenplay by Chris Terrio; “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin; “Life of Pi,” screenplay by David Magee; “Lincoln,” screenplay by Tony Kushner; “Silver Linings Playbook,” screenplay by David O. Russell.

Who will win • Here’s your upset special: Chris Terrio’s gritty script for “Argo” will take the Oscar over Tony Kushner’s lyrical 19th-century dialogue in “Lincoln.”

Who should win • “Beasts of the Southern Wild” was the best movie of 2012, in The Cricket’s not-so-humble opinion — and the screenplay, a mix of folklore and fantasy, was where the magic was first conjured.

Best Picture

Nominees • “Amour,” “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Les Misérables,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Zero Dark Thirty.”

Who will win • Two bits of conventional wisdom will collide on Oscar night. The first says the movie with the most nominations wins Best Picture, which means “Lincoln” will take it. The other says a movie that flatters Hollywood will also win, which would give it to “Argo,” a movie in which movie producers actually save lives. “Argo’s” sweep of the Golden Globes and the major guild awards (many of whose members also vote for the Oscar) point to a big win for Ben Affleck’s movie, even if he was snubbed as director and actor.

Who should win • “Beasts of the Southern Wild” is the most original and moving movie in ages and would get The Cricket’s vote if he had one.

movies@sltrib.com

Twitter: @moviecricket

movies@sltrib.com

Oscar night

P The 85th annual Academy Awards will be handed out at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre.

When • Tonight starting at 6:30 Mountain time.

TV • On ABC, KTVX Ch. 4 in Salt Lake City.

Pre-show • Red-carpet coverage starts on ABC at 5 p.m. Mountain, and on E! at 3:30 p.m.

Live-tweeting • Join The Tribune’s Sean P. Means for live commentary on Oscar night, on Twitter: @moviecricket.