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WASHINGTON - Republicans will have a difficult time reclaiming the House in November's elections with a slew of incumbents deciding to retire, resign or run for higher office.
But all of those vacancies could lead to a big promotion for Utah Rep. Chris Cannon. If he can hold on to his seat, Cannon may become the top Republican on either the Natural Resources or Oversight and Government Reform committees.
So far 30 Republicans have announced they will not run for re-election, creating a seniority shake-up throughout the House.
While acknowledging "it is early" to start campaigning to take a top spot, Cannon wants House Republican leaders to know he is interested.
"I would love to chair a committee," said the six-term congressman. Since the Democrats are in power, they name the chairman, while the Republicans name a ranking member. If the Republicans were to reclaim a majority, those ranking members would instantly become chairmen.
Cannon's best bet appears to be the Natural Resources Committee, which is often led by Western representatives.
The current ranking member is Alaska Rep. Don Young, who is now under investigation by the Justice Department over his connections to an oil-field services company. Two other senior Republicans on the committee have resigned, giving Cannon a wealth of seniority, one of the key factors in selecting committee leaders.
"The possibility of chairing that committee is very good," Cannon said.
Cannon hasn't backed Utah's environmental protection groups such as the Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance; rather, he has pushed for more mining on public lands. But at least some of Utah's environmental activists would welcome his ascension to ranking member.
"It would bring more Utah public land issues to the committee's attention," said Justin Allegro, SUWA's legislative director. "We would be glad to have those debates."
If Cannon could choose, he would prefer to become the ranking Republican on the Oversight committee, which most recently made headlines by holding the steroids-in-baseball hearings, which included embattled pitcher Roger Clemens.
The ranking member on that committee also has announced his retirement. The successor is normally the Republican with the most seniority, which would be Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays. He is a moderate who expects a tough re-election campaign.
"He is clearly the senior guy," Cannon said.
Shays said he is confident he will get the job this time, even though party leaders passed him over in 2003.
"I realize a lot of people are talking about running for it," he said. "I'm not concerned, based on my contact with just about everyone who counts - leaders and members of the steering committee."
Cannon and California Rep. Darrell Issa have positioned themselves as more conservative alternatives to Shays.
"He is a great guy and he would do a good job as chairman, but I don't think anything is assured yet," said Cannon, who believes his legal background and experience on the Judiciary committee make him an attractive choice.
The ultimate decision rests with the Republican steering committee, which will make their selections in a private vote after the elections. They will take into account seniority, Republican loyalty and fundraising.
Shays and Issa hold subcommittee chairmanships on the Oversight committee. And Issa is a big fundraiser for the party. Since 2005, his campaign has contributed $150,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee. Shays contributed $15,000 and Cannon only $6,000 over the same period, according to Federal Elections Committee filings.
Cannon said he expects to do more on this front to better his chances and help Republicans win more seats.
"Rasing money for the NRCC is an important fact that we are looking at right now," he said.
Before any of this matters, Cannon must secure his seventh term in office. He faces three intra-party challengers, who will try to unseat him at the state Republican convention. So far, Utah's other representatives, Republican Rob Bishop and Democrat Jim Matheson, remain unchallenged.
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* Connecticut Post reporter PETER URBAN contributed to this article.