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Presidential hopes: For Romney, a Michigan primary victory is crucial
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2008, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

DETROIT - Mitt Romney was born here, so it's fitting that he is looking to Michigan to breathe new life into his oxygen-starved presidential campaign.

Romney, whose father, George Romney, ran American Motors and served three terms as Michigan governor, has come home. But rather than kicking back, renewing old acquaintanceships, he's fighting for his campaign's survival after two losses in key states caused a stumble in his quest for the Republican nomination.

The candidate's pitch - that of a turnaround artist whose career was built on turning problems into successes - might seem just the prescription for a state suffering the nation's worst unemployment and facing economic disaster.

But Romney heads into this battle neck and neck in the polls with Sen. John McCain, who won the state's GOP primary in 2000 and who picked up steam after winning New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.

Also, rival Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who routed Romney in the Iowa caucuses, enjoys considerable support in polls as well.

"This was supposed to be the third leg of [Romney's] triple win of the process," says Bill Ballenger, editor of the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics. "Now it's looking like he's got to have this to be able to go on."

Romney has pulled his television advertisements in South Carolina and Florida, the next two primary contests, refocusing his efforts on Michigan, where a win could revive his campaign.

"I grew up in Michigan when Michigan was the pride of America," Romney says in one of the spots airing in the state, where he will likely spend $2 million on television spots. "It breaks my heart to see us in a one-state recession. We can change that."

It appears his message might be resonating. Down in the polls recently, Romney seems to be rebounding.

He is leading or tied with McCain in several major polls.

The two are in a statistical dead heat, according to a survey released this weekend by the Detroit News. McCain was the choice of 27 percent of likely voters, while Romney was right there with 26 percent. Huckabee was third, with 19 percent.

A McClatchy-MSNBC survey shows Romney up 8 points over McCain, 30 percent to 22 percent. The Detroit Free Press shows Romney up 5 percentage points over McCain, 27 percent to 22 percent.

But the American Research Group's poll shows McCain ahead 34 percent to 27 percent for Romney. While the two are dead-even among Republican voters, McCain has a big edge among independents who say they probably will vote in the GOP primary.

Without a win in Michigan, Romney could be heading into a damaging drought. South Carolina and Florida both have large populations of Protestant evangelical voters, a sector Romney has so far failed to win over.

Romney is in second place in Nevada against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, according to polls.

After that, the so-called Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5 has 22 states up for grabs and when the smoke clears, the nation may have the best indication of who will be the GOP nominee.

"If he is going into that naked, with no wins, well, he may not even get that far," says Ballenger of Inside Michigan Politics. "He may have to pull out."

One unexpected Romney ally is a popular liberal Web site.

Markos Moulitsas, the founder of Daily Kos, which has a following of millions of liberal activists, is urging his Michigan readers to vote for Romney to keep him in the GOP race.

"We want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us," Moulitsas wrote in a plea. "We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win in Michigan."

Although he is playing up his personal connections to Michigan, Romney may not be able to count on many votes based on his family's legacy. While his father was a popular governor of the state, he left office in 1969.

The Romney last name didn't help Mitt Romney's brother, Scott, to win the GOP nomination for Michigan attorney general in 1994. Ronna Romney, who was married to Scott, used the Romney last name in two unsuccessful runs for U.S. Senate.

Mitt Romney also has lost some support among his endorsers in Michigan. State GOP Rep. Fulton Sheen, whom Romney had listed as part of his Faith and Values Steering Committee early last year, has jumped ship and is now backing Huckabee.

tburr@sltrib.com

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