Romney ruminations: Which Mitt lost in Iowa?

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The good-looking, smooth-talking guy with lots of money usually gets the girl, or wins the election. But not always, as Mitt Romney's loss to Mike Huckabee in the Republican caucuses in Iowa reveals.

Romney outspent Huckabee, by some accounts, by a ratio of 10-to-1, yet captured just 25 percent of the vote to Huckabee's 34 percent in what amounted to an ambush. Romney spent a year positioning himself to capture Bush's base - religious conservatives - but was bushwhacked by an ordained Baptist minister and born-again Christian evangelical in a state rife with born-again Christian evangelicals.

So, was this just a minor setback on the road to the GOP nomination for Romney, or a harbinger of worse to come? You may find the answer to that question by answering yet another: Which Romney lost?

Was it Mitt the Mormon, who holds to beliefs that many Christian evangelicals find heretical? If that's the case, Romney could be in worse-than-anticipated trouble in the Bible Belt, especially if Huckabee maintains momentum.

Was it Mitt the flip-flopper, the king chameleon who shed moderate positions on such issues as abortion and gun rights in a rush to capture the right wing of his party? If that's the case, it means the conservative Republican base he's been courting simply doesn't trust him.

Was it Mitt the attack dog, who went negative in the final month of the Iowa campaign, attacking Huckabee on taxes and immigration issues as polls showed the former Arkansas governor gaining ground? If so, there's still time for Romney to make nice with his fellow GOP candidates and to shelve the vitriol until the general election.

Or was it Mitt the coldly calculating venture capitalist, who was beaten by an economic populist who rails against big corporations and the chokehold they have on national politics?

Or, and this is the most-likely scenario, is Iowa like Las Vegas in the respect that what happens in Iowa stays in Iowa?

Chances are, you can throw the results from the Hawkeye State out the window. The real race begins Tuesday in New Hampshire, when the full Republican field finally suits up. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a secular, moderate Republican, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, were virtual no-shows in quirky Iowa, conceding the caucuses and focusing on upcoming primaries.

New Hampshire's primary should better reveal how Romney plays before a broader Republican crowd, one that perhaps is less likely to vote for, or against, a candidate's religion.