A new Salt Lake Tribune poll shows candidates Ralph Becker, Dave Buhler and Jenny Wilson - in that order - in a statistical dead heat to replace outgoing Mayor Rocky Anderson.

With just one weekend separating voters from Tuesday's primary - in which the top two vote-getters will advance to fall's finale - expect a photo finish.

Insiders predict fewer than 100 votes could end up separating the top three.

The biggest burst has come from Becker, who suddenly leads the field with 26 percent. For weeks, the urban planner and Utah House Democratic leader has argued the Wilson/Buhler lead seemed soft and that his campaign had the momentum.

The new numbers may prove his point.

"Ralph has done the best job mobilizing some of the key interest groups in the city and getting his name out," said Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. "He certainly becomes, perhaps, the most dangerous candidate."

Still, the poll puts Buhler just a percentage point behind Becker with 25 percent and Wilson two behind with 24 percent.

Keith Christensen, Anderson's anointed successor, lags with 11 percent.

The survey, conducted Sept. 5-6 by Washington-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., queried 625 voters likely to cast ballots in the primary. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Undecided voters, who stood at 24 percent last month, have dwindled to 13 percent, many evidently breaking to Becker.

"Whew!" Becker's campaign manager, David Everitt, whistled Friday when told of the poll results. "I can tell you we're not unhappy with that."

"It's very encouraging," Becker said. "We have been feeling for the last two weeks this incredible wave of support coming our way."

By comparison, Wilson was subdued.

"It's a tight race, no doubt," said the Democratic Salt Lake County councilwoman who had led every previously published poll. ''Becker's come up. He's clearly focused on a certain demographic.

''We're optimistic and we have a great field team. We're workin' it.''

When initially told about the poll, Wilson's campaign manager was underwhelmed.

"Really?" Jeff Mathis said. "Interesting."

Christensen's camp clearly was not thrilled with the new numbers, but vowed to forge on.

"I never expected to lead in the polls," said Christensen, a former city councilman. "They tend to be about name ID. The only poll that matters is Election Day. Voters will make this call, not the polls."

Buhler, a sitting city councilman, also was measured.

"That's interesting," he said. "What this shows is that it's very important people get out and vote on Tuesday. I felt like it would be close."

The numbers show a 10-percentage-point surge by Becker, who had 16 percent of likely voters in the Tribune's August poll. Buhler jumped a percentage point from the last survey, while Wilson dropped a percentage point.

Wilson had more than double the unfavorable percentage as Becker, according to the latest poll. Even so, that number for Wilson is small, at 15 percent. Becker's unfavorable is 6 percent, while Buhler had the highest at 29 percent. Christensen's negative number was 21 percent.

Perhaps surprising, Becker leads Wilson among likely women voters, albeit slightly. The poll also gave Becker a small percentage-point edge among Democrats, independents and non-LDS voters.

Jowers said the new numbers fundamentally change the race. Now residents will believe a vote for Becker won't be wasted, he noted, adding that Christensen has fallen into "that second tier."

Support for Wilson, Jowers said, "seems to have plateaued for a number of months."

"Just not any passion outside of her core supporters," he said.

While Buhler has ticked up slightly, Jowers called it "striking" that so many undecideds broke to Becker.

"If that continues, Becker's in great shape," he said. "The victory is there for all three of them. It really will come down to this last weekend on get-out-the-vote [efforts]."

The survey shows Buhler leads among likely LDS voters, more than tripling the field in that column.

The only Republican among the major contenders in the officially nonpartisan race, Buhler also dominated among GOP voters, snagging 58 percent of the Republican ranks, followed by Christensen at 18 percent.

Christensen changed his political ties from Republican to unaffiliated in July.

Left-leaning Salt Lake City has not elected a GOP mayor in more than three decades.

By contrast, the independent vote was close among the top three contenders. Becker leads with 29 percent followed by Wilson (26 percent) and Buhler (22 percent). Christensen captured 9 percent of the independent vote.

Residents contacted Friday reflected the split loyalties in the chase.

Susan Barnett said she will vote for Wilson on Tuesday.

"I like her ideas, and I think we could use a lady again," she said. "And I like the fact that she's Ted Wilson's daughter."

Rose Park resident Jim Cameron said he will cast his primary vote for Christensen.

"I'm a Republican, and I think he looks like he'll do what I think needs to be done," he said. "He'll help develop the west side."

Avenues resident David Rietbrock said he may go for Buhler.

"I'm leaning toward Buhler, he's more in touch with the people," he said. "Rocky, in my opinion, has not been that great a mayor."

And east-sider Helen Ratcliffe said she will vote for Becker.

"I tend to be environmentally concerned," she said. "And I think he has experience beyond Jenny Wilson, whose fliers fill my mailbox every day."

Turnout is sure to be key Tuesday - and the neck-and-neck-and-neck nature of the race could swell that showing. Historically, though, less than 30 percent of registered capital voters go to the polls in off-year mayoral primaries.

Among the five fringe candidates in the latest poll, surgeon J.P. Hughes was the only one to register any support, with 1 percent.

The previous two general elections in the capital have featured strictly Democratic candidates. That history, bolstered by Becker's boost in the new survey, suggests a Becker-Wilson showdown come Nov. 6 would not be a surprise.

Jowers said Becker has done the best job at strategically micro-targeting the groups that he needs to win.

''He's really conveyed confidence. The 'nice' label may not be as harmful, because he's replacing Mayor Anderson,'' Jowers said. ''A lot of people want a real change in the mayor's office.''

djensen@sltrib.com

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* CHRISTOPHER SMART contributed to this story.

Days before the primary, Ralph Becker rides a wave of momentum to a narrow lead and new questions surface: Has longtime front-runner Jenny Wilson crested?

Will Dave Buhler's backing ebb? And is Rocky's choice, Keith Christensen, sunk?

A sea change: Days before the primary, Becker rides a wave of momentum to a narrow lead and new questions surface: Has longtime front-runner Wilson crested? Will Buhler's backing ebb?

And is Christensen sunk?

Ralph Becker

"We have been feeling for the last two weeks this incredible wave of support coming our way."

Dave Buhler

"What this shows is that it's very important people get out and vote on Tuesday. I felt like it would be close."

Jenny Wilson

"It's a tight race, no doubt. Becker's come up. . . . We're optimistic and we have a great field team."

Keith Christensen

"I never expected to lead in the polls. . . . The only poll that matters is Election Day. Voters will make this call."