This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2007, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Posted: 1:56 PM- OK, election fans, how about a photo finish?

A new Salt Lake Tribune poll shows Salt Lake City mayoral candidates Ralph Becker, Dave Buhler and Jenny Wilson - in that order - in a statistical dead heat to replace Rocky Anderson.

With just one weekend separating voters from Tuesday's primary - in which the top two vote-getters will advance to fall's finale - a scattershot mayoral horse race promises to have a sizzling stretch run.

The biggest burst has come from Becker, who suddenly leads the field with 26 percent. For weeks, the urban planner and Utah House Democratic leader has maintained the Wilson/Buhler lead seemed soft and that his campaign had the momentum.

Today's numbers may prove his point.

Still, the poll puts Buhler just a percentage point behind Becker with 25 percent and Wilson two behind with 24 percent.

Keith Christensen, Anderson's anointed successor, lags with 11 percent.

The survey, conducted Sept. 5-6 by Washington D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., queried 625 voters likely to cast ballots in the primary. The margin of error is 4 percent.

Undecided voters, which stood at 24 percent last month, have dwindled to 13 percent, many evidently breaking to Becker.

"Whew!" Becker's campaign manager, David Everitt, whistled today when told of the poll results. "I can tell you we're not unhappy with that."

"It's very encouraging," Becker said. "We have been feeling for the last two weeks this incredible wave of support coming our way."

By comparison, Wilson was subdued.

"It's a tight race, no doubt," said the Democratic Salt Lake County councilwoman. "Becker's come up. He's clearly focused on a certain demographic.

"We're optimistic and we have a great field team. We're workin' it."

When initially told about the poll, Wilson's campaign manager was underwhelmed.

"Really," Jeff Mathis said. "Interesting."

Christensen's camp was clearly not thrilled with the new numbers, but vowed to forge on.

"I never expected to lead in the polls," said Christensen, a former city councilman. "They tend to be about name ID. The only poll that matters is Election Day. Voters will make this call, not the polls."

Buhler, a sitting city councilman, also was measured.

"That's interesting," he said. "What this shows is that it's very important people get out and vote on Tuesday. I felt like it would be close."

The numbers show a 10-point surge by Becker, who had 16 percent of likely voters in the Tribune's August poll. Buhler jumped a percentage point from the last survey, while Wilson dropped a percentage point.

Wilson, the front-runner in previous polls over the summer, had more than double the unfavorable percentage as Becker, according to the latest survey. Even so, that number for Wilson is small, at 15 percent. Becker's unfavorable is just 6 percent, while Buhler had the highest at 29 percent. Christensen's negative number was 21 percent.

Perhaps surprising, Becker also leads with likely women voters, albeit slightly. The poll also gave Becker small percentage-point edges among Democrats, independents and non-LDS voters.

Buhler leads among likely LDS voters, more than tripling the field in that column.

The only Republican among the major contenders in the officially nonpartisan race, Buhler also dominated the GOP slot. He registered 58 percent of the Republican vote, while Christensen (with 18 percent) had the next closest.

Christensen changed his political ties from Republican to unaffiliated in July.

Left-leaning Salt Lake City has not elected a GOP mayor in more than three decades.

By contrast, the independent vote was close among the top three contenders. Becker leads with 29 percent followed by Wilson (26 percent) and Buhler (22 percent). Christensen snagged just 9 percent of the independent vote.

Turnout is sure to be key in Tuesday's primary - and the neck-and-neck-and-neck nature of the race could swell that showing. Historically, though, less than 20 percent of registered capital voters typically go to the polls in off-year mayoral primaries.

Among the five fringe candidates, surgeon J.P. Hughes was the only one to register any support, with 1 percent.

djensen@sltrib.com" Target="_BLANK">djensen@sltrib.com