You know we're shooting for number one.

Come on. You've heard the catchy tune. If not, get used to it. It's going to be big by January.

It's the famous (or infamous) San Diego Charger fight song that's been around since the '70s. Sure, the tune has been popular among Chargers fans in spurts - through the Air Coryell era, and most recently, the L.T. era. San Diego fans have never been able to sing their fight song at the biggest stage in American sports, the Super Bowl.

But that's going to change Ð finally.

There are several reasons to love the Chargers this year. They have the NFL's most exciting player in running back LaDainian Tomlinson, and a fierce defense led by Shawne Merriman. Perhaps the most important thing working in San Diego's favor is one major recent trend.

The last two Super Bowl champions have won titles following colossal playoff failures.

Last year, the Colts were coming off a season in which they were on the verge of finishing unbeaten. They fizzled down the stretch, and lost to Pittsburgh in a memorable divisional playoff game at home.

Indy bounced back last year as a wild card team and won two road games on its way to the Super Bowl championship.

Three seasons ago, it was the Steelers who were nearly perfect in the regular season (15-1) before getting smacked at home by the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Pittsburgh returned to the playoffs in 2005 as a wild card team and swept its way to the franchise's fifth Super Bowl championship.

That leads us to:

With thunderbolts and lightning

With the Super Charger try!

The Chargers entered the playoffs last season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. They basically had New England beat in a thrilling divisional playoff game before blowing it in overtime Ð at home, just like the Colts and Steelers.

So just like the Colts and Steelers, the Chargers will bounce back from an unsatisfying ending to their playoff run. They'll win their first Super Bowl title.

But there are some teams and factors that make me nervous about my pick.

The Patriots are the Super Bowl pick of many experts after they loaded up their roster in the offseason. Of course, trading for Randy Moss grabbed headlines for the team. And it's understandable why people made such a big deal about it. He's been a model teammate and a proven winner for years. I mean, only the exact opposite.

The Colts would be more of a factor if they still had their Booger. Anthony "Booger" McFarland boosted the team's run defense during its title run last season, but he's out for the year with a knee injury. No Booger, no title for Indy.

I could look at NFC teams, but none of them are good enough to beat the Chargers on a neutral field.

The Chargers themselves pose a risk to them winning it all this season. Norv Turner, who hasn't consistently won anywhere as a head coach, is the new man in charge of San Diego. But really, could he do a worse job than Marty Schottenheimer, the man he replaced, who just happens to be the worst big-game coach in NFL history?

No, nothing is guaranteed in sports or life. But if you want to know who's going to win Super Bowl XLII, I'm telling you it is San Diego all the way. Come on now, sing it with me:

San Diego Super Chargers,

aaragon@sltrib.com