"We're watching and hoping we get an additional storm or two," he said from his 2,000-acre dryland farm in Eastland, about 12 miles east of Monticello in San Juan County. "We're the kind that keep prayin' and hopin'."

Johnson's cautious optimism can be heard throughout Utah as water watchers look back on a warm, dry winter season that promises to turn into a hot, dry summer. Moisture that soaked the ground last fall, coupled with water stored in reservoirs during the relatively wet years of 2005 and 2006 have buffered this year's miserable snowpack and runoff.

It's what comes next that's got everyone wondering.

"Starting in next fall, we'll take a look at where we are," said Brian McInerney, a National Weather Service hydrologist.

That's when it will be clearer how much the state's reservoirs, which are largely full now, have been drawn down to provide municipal and irrigation water. And that's when water professionals can measure how much groundwater supplies, which are currently nicely charged, have been depleted.

Utah has had two years since the last drought to build a water cushion. Northern Utah enjoyed a near-record water year in 2005, and southern Utah had its record year in 2006. Those good times put an end to a 6-year drought, noted McInerney.

Good thing, because the snowpack for May was dismal, as low as 17 percent of normal in the Virgin River Basin and only as high as 37 percent of normal in the Bear River drainage.

New runoff numbers released Friday were even worse.

Based on average flows during 30 years, most of the Provo, Weber and Bear River drainages have had runoff at half normal flows or worse. Around Salt Lake City, City Creek, Emigration and Parley's drainages were well below 50 percent, while Millcreek, Big Cottonwood and Little Cottonwood were measured at 50 to 60 percent of the 30-year average.

Pine Valley in the Virgin drainage is just 17 percent of normal. Near Johnson's farm, outside Monticello, runoff in some streams was about one percent of normal, said Randy Julander, a water forecaster for the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service.

"Grim is certainly not an understatement," he said, adding that forecasters predict a hot, dry summer.

"It's as bad as 1977 . . . [and] '77 was just devastating," he said, recalling the bone-dry year he drove bare roads throughout Yellowstone National Park in usually snowy March.

Like McInerney, he pointed out that reservoirs will go a long way to addressing this summer's needs. But he questioned whether farmers who rely on stream-fed irrigation may run into trouble.

"If you don't have reservoir storage," he said, "this is going to be a very long summer for you." McInerney said we have left behind El Niño for a neutral period and appear headed toward a La Niña period, which tends to make cold, wet areas like the Pacific Northwest more cold and wet, and warm, dry areas like the desert Southwest warmer and drier.

Since Utah falls between these two areas, it's not clear what trend the state will see, he said.

The city of St. George is not waiting to find out what the trend will be. Last week, it imposed mandatory water restrictions, including a ban on lawn watering between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. The city also is asking residents and businesses to set irrigation clocks to operate during the evening hours and offering free residential landscape water audits.

fahys@sltrib.com