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Oscar prognostication used to be a parlor game, a fun way for movie geeks to talk about what they liked and didn't like about the movies of the last year.
But with Oscar campaigning now taking on all the earmarks of political campaigning - complete with saturation advertising, whisper campaigns and pundits tracking the horserace - predicting the Oscar nominations, which will be announced Tuesday morning, has become a business.
But there's still some fun to be had - mostly by throwing in the names that should be in the Oscar conversation, but aren't. So here are my fearless forecasts for the nominees in the big categories.
Best Actor
Lock: Forest Whitaker, for his fiery portrayal of Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland," which has won all the awards and been seen by almost nobody. (It opens in Utah on Feb. 2 - unless Fox Searchlight sees its shadow that morning.)
Strong contenders: Will Smith for "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Peter O'Toole for "Venus" (sort of a lifetime-achievement nod there); Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Departed" (and not for "Blood Diamond").
Angling for the fifth spot: My heart says Sacha Baron Cohen for "Borat," my head says Ryan Gosling for "Half Nelson." Go with Baron Cohen.
Should be in the running: Will Ferrell's tender transformation in "Stranger Than Fiction."
Best Actress
Lock: It's going to be a coronation for "The Queen's" Helen Mirren.
Strong contenders: Judi Dench for "Notes on a Scandal"; Meryl Streep for "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet for "Little Children."
Angling for the fifth spot: Penélope Cruz for "Volver."
Should be in the running: Shareeka Epps, Gosling's "Half Nelson" co-star, so heartbreaking as a junior-high kid surviving a lifetime of disappointments.
Best Supporting Actor
Lock: Eddie Murphy's comeback role in "Dreamgirls."
Strong contenders: Brad Pitt in "Babel"; Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond"; Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children."
Angling for the fifth spot: It's between Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine" (another lifetime-achievement bid, and equally deserving) and Michael Sheen's portrayal of Tony Blair in "The Queen." I go with Sheen.
Should be in the running: Half the cast of "The Departed," but especially Mark Wahlberg and Alec Baldwin.
Best Supporting Actress
Lock: Jennifer Hudson for "Dreamgirls" - if Oscar likes anything more than a comeback story, like Murphy's, it's a discovery.
Strong contenders: Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel"; Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal"; little Abigail Breslin for "Little Miss Sunshine."
Angling for the fifth spot: Drama or comedy? Adriana Barraza in "Babel" or Emily Blunt in "The Devil Wears Prada"? With Oscar, it's usually drama - go with Barraza.
Best Director
Lock: Martin Scorsese for "The Departed" - could this be, at long last, Marty's time?
Strong contenders: Alejandro González Iñárritu for "Babel"; Stephen Frears for "The Queen"; Bill Condon for "Dreamgirls."
Angling for the fifth spot: The Directors Guild picked Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for "Little Miss Sunshine," but I'm predicting Paul Greengrass will get in for "United 93."
Should be in the running: The other two Mexican directors, besides González Iñárritu, who astounded us this year: Alfonso Cuarón for "Children of Men" and Guillermo Del Toro for "Pan's Labyrinth."
Best Picture
Lock: A month ago, it looked like "Dreamgirls" in a walk, but now I think it's about even with "The Departed" and "Babel."
Strong contender: "The Queen."
Angling for the fifth spot: I refuse to believe that "Little Miss Sunshine," a movie the world loves but I loathed, is going to get a Best Picture nod. Maybe "Letters From Iwo Jima" will crack through.
Should be in the running: The fact that "United 93" - my favorite of the year, and arguably the most-praised-by-critics movie of 2006 - is on the outside looking in says a lot about the popularity-contest aspect of the Oscars.
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* SEAN P. MEANS writes "The Movie Cricket," at blogs.sltrib .com/ movies. Send comments to Sean P. Means, movie critic, The Salt Lake Tribune, 90 S. 400 West, Suite 700, Salt Lake City, UT 84101, or
e-mail: movies@sltrib.com.