This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2007, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
Utahns want lawmakers to spend a projected $1.6 billion surplus first on public education. A tax cut is lower on their list of priorities. Much lower.
But legislators are poised to give Utahns a tax cut ranging from $100 million to $300 million anyway - whether they want it or not.
In a poke at voters who say they don't want a tax cut, Draper Republican Rep. Greg Hughes plans to introduce a "tax me more" bill creating a line on tax forms for Utahns to write in a donation.
It's a perennial disconnect between public opinion and lawmakers. Polls of voter sentiment often outline a very different set of priorities from lawmakers' to-do list. So politicians typically dismiss public opinion surveys, insisting they know best what their constituents want. At the same time, when it's convenient to an argument, they pick and choose poll numbers that bolster their own perspective and trash the rest.
But when polls show the public reaching different conclusions on the same issues - as two recent surveys from Salt Lake City's daily newspapers have - it puts lawmakers in a quandary and makes determining public will more difficult.
"Polls have some influence. They're part of the information we use to make decisions," says Senate President John Valentine. "But they're not the final thing."
Divergent results
Nowhere is the divide between lawmakers and the public - and newspaper polls - more evident than in the highly charged debate over public education reform and funding.
Voters seem single-mindedly devoted to public schools. Many legislators are just as committed to reforming so-called "government schools" and easing development of charter and private schools.
A Salt Lake Tribune poll of more than 600 Utahns conducted days before the Legislature convenes Monday found opposition to taxpayer-subsidized private school vouchers and tax credits growing. This year, 57 percent of those polled said they oppose vouchers and tax credits. Two years ago, that number was 53 percent.
Those numbers differ with a poll from the Deseret Morning News. A survey of 400 Utahns two weeks ago for that newspaper found 48 percent of those polled support tax credits or vouchers - an increase of 8 percent from the year before.
The tax-cut debate also reveals a schism - and the influence of the wording used in poll questions.
The Tribune poll shows nearly six of 10 voters would rather have lawmakers funnel more of the state's windfall into classrooms rather than give a tax break. As a second priority, more than one-third of Utahns polled would like lawmakers to spend more on roads and transportation.
The Tribune poll by Virginia-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research seems to conflict with a similar poll from the Morning News, which characterized the findings as showing a clear majority of Utahns want a tax cut. That newspaper's pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, asked 400 voters if they wanted a $300 million tax cut, a $100 million tax cut or no tax cut at all. That poll found 19 percent of those surveyed want a $300 million tax cut. Another 38 percent of those surveyed want a $100 million tax cut. About 37 percent want no tax cut. The poll offered no other spending options.
That may explain the difference in the two results, says Quin Monson of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.
"Voters always want a tax cut if they're asked. And of course, bigger is better. And they always want more services," says Monson. "The best questions ask them to make choices."
Lawmakers say polls are easy. Adopting laws and balancing budgets are more difficult. "Lawmakers have to make decisions based on all of the facts," says Valentine. "Those facts include polls, talking to constituents and supporters. Some of it comes from your inner sense of what you believe is right or wrong."
Skewed questions?
Other Tribune poll results show voters breaking with lawmakers on several issues. They back restoring funding for dental coverage for low-income Utahns. Most would amend the Utah Constitution to declare accessible, affordable health care a basic right. And three out of four want the minimum wage raised to $7 an hour - an idea many lawmakers are cool to.
Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says differences in the wording of the two newspapers' questions could have skewed the results. For example, the Tribune asked if voters would grant tax credits or vouchers to the "parents of children in private schools." The News posed a more generic question.
"The secret to all polling is asking the right question," says Ron Hrebenar, chairman of the University of Utah's political science department. "If you're going to get a particular answer, you want to make sure you phrase it the way you want. Getting an unbiased answer takes a lot more work, and it's harder to do."
Parents for Choice in Education spokeswoman Nancy Pomeroy, an advocate of tax credits and vouchers, believes the Tribune results are slanted and the News poll is a true gauge of public opinion.
"Did you ask any other question?" she asked. "You should have asked: 'Do you think parents should be allowed to pick the school that's best for their child?' ''
But West Jordan retiree Lydia Manning says the wording of the question would not have changed her response. She opposes taxpayer subsidies for private schools.
"Private schools are good. But if parents choose private schools, then they need to pay for it," Manning says.
Whatever the cause of the different numbers, such contrary results provide political cover for lawmakers on all sides of the tax cut and education reform debate. Those who want to bolster public education likely will cite one poll, while those pushing for a tax cut can quote the other.
"People use whatever ammunition they have to support what their position is," says House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, acknowledging Democrats are more likely than Republicans to use the Tribune's results to make their case during the 2007 Legislature.
"Polls have some influence. They're part of the information we use to make decisions. But they're not the final thing."
JOHN VALENTINE
President, Utah Senate
"The secret to all polling is asking the right question. . . . Getting an unbiased answer takes a lot more work, and it's harder to do."
RON HREBENAR
Chairman, University of Utah political science department